Premier League: Race for title hots up at Christmas

MANCHESTER UNITED may have brought the bus to Anfield last Sunday but Liverpool can have little argument with the fact they failed to capitalise on their overwhelming possession, home advantage and shots on goal, squandering their chance to retake top spot on the Premier League table and leaving the door open to their opponents this evening, Arsenal.

Liverpool still have the chance to sit top of the table on Christmas Day, should they get the better of the Gunners this evening, again at Anfield. But they will need to put in a markedly better performance than their recent performances that saw them lose away to Union St Gilloise, albeit with a third-string team and the draw against a Man United side struggling with a morale somewhere beneath the bottom of the barrel.

Now things did improve midweek in the Carabao Cup, when an effective second-string side dismantled West Ham with a mood-boosting 5-1 victory. Again though, it must be considered that the Hammers’ defence were staggeringly off the pace on the night, much to the obvious irritation of their boss David Moyes.

Tough journey

Also playing into Liverpool’s advantage tonight is the fact that Arsenal have not won in the last nine Premier League visits to Anfield. Not since 2012, when Arsene Wenger was still the Gunners boss and Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla scored in a 2-0 victory over Brendan Rodgers' Reds, have the Gunners got the better of the hosts on Merseyside.

Indeed, it was even argued that the 2-2 draw at Anfield last April, effectively ended Arsenal’s last hope of wrestling the Premier League title from the grasp of Man City.

So not a great record for the Gunners in Liverpool 4. But then again, records are made to be broken and there have been signs in the recent games between the teams that Mikael Arteta’s side have been getting the measure of Liverpool.

Trust in Jesus

Arsenal go into the game with them atop the Premier League summit, having produced a dominant display in a 2-0 win over Brighton at the Emirates Stadium last weekend. Declan Rice won many plaudits for his midfield performance as the Seagulls were kept at arm’s length, while Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz got on the scoresheet to quieten suggestions that the Gunners have a striker crisis that needs to be resolved in the transfer window in January.

Since arriving in England in 2017, Jesus has been so impressive in the English game, with Man City firstly and with Arsenal since 2022. And Jesus does like to go to Anfield. He has either scored (once) or assisted (twice) on each of his last three visits to Anfield, netting the Gunners’ second goal in that 2-2 draw in the same Anfield fixture last season.

Along with fellow Brazilian Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka, the Gunners will pose a significant threat to Liverpool. But it’s maybe their defensive accomplishments that has defined their run to the top in recent seasons. Arsenal’s keepers have faced the fewest shots on target than any other Premier League side, with just 43 shots making their way on to the target, which, in turn, allowed for the fewest expected goals (13) against them than any other team. Just ahead of Liverpool coincidently.

Records

Liverpool’s attack will of course test both those stats and William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes in the centre of the Arsenal defence, with Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez, Luis Diaz, and Cody Gakpo being ably assisted with goals from Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dominik Szoboszial, and Curtis Jones in their 36-goal haul this season so far. Liverpool are also the side attempting more shots, 314, than any other side in the division.

Alexander-Arnold has recorded six Premier League assists against Arsenal, more than he has against any other opponent, with five of those coming at Anfield. Whatever the outcome, we should be guaranteed an exhilarating encounter as both sides have traditionally thrown caution aside in favour of all out, sometimes reckless, attacks. And there has been only one 0-0 draw in this fixture since 1998.

With Man City not playing this weekend due to club World Cup duties last night, this evening’s match offers a big opportunity for either side to grab the title race by the throat going into the hectic Christmas period.