Cork military expert cannot see 'clean' or early end to war

A University College Cork (UCC) expert on American military history does not see a 'clean' resolution to the ongoing war with Iran, and has warned that the Middle East conflict could rage for months.

Dr David Fitzgerald’s, a lecturer in history, has conducted research on US military intervention and counter-insurgency, and more recently he has examined the relationship between the post-Vietnam American military and US culture and society.

On the current situation in the Middle East, Mr Fitzgerald described it as a very messy situation, in terms of securing a resolution.

“Wars are complex and unpredictable. I don’t see an easy and clean solution. I think it will play out for a number of months at the very least," he predicted.

“I certainly get the sense that the Americans thought this would be much quicker. The question now is what next. They may have a coherent plan, but if they have, then I have not heard it.” 

He said the Middle East issues have the potential overall to be messier than some may think.

“I think the Americans can keep going for a long time and so can the Iranians. I think Israel is happy to keep bombing for months and months. The Iranians have been preparing for this for a very long time, notwithstanding a lot of the regime being killed."

He said that he couldn't see any evidence that the Iranians would give up easily. 

"I also see a lot of American partners in the region getting quite upset and getting bombed by the Iranians so I just don’t see what the clean resolution is," Mr Fitzgerald added.

"The only [clean] thing that can happen is that Americans declare victory and go home, having achieved the dismantling of the nuclear programme and they call it a day. That is the clean solution. Regime change (in Iran) ... I don’t see that happening in the near term."

Mr Fitzgerald added that he feels that America is currently more equipped in the air than on the ground.

“Roughly half of the US air force is in the region, and this is the biggest air force in the world, by a long shot. What they haven’t prepared for, and we have heard the Trump administration say, is that the ground war is not off the table, but there are no troops in the region.

“So I do not see enough ground assets in place to do anything there. It will take months to build up a ground force."

He continued that the US appears wiling to use Kurdish militia as an alternative to American boots on the ground.

"I have a lot of doubts about how good an idea that is, in terms of the capabilities of that militia and what it does for stability in the region," he said.