Analysis: Rural Cork is losing out to housing developments in the East

Cork County Council chief executive Moira Murrell, in response to a query from The Echo, has said that she received a letter from the housing minister, James Browne, and the “correspondence advised local authorities that providing for housing needs is the Government’s top priority, and that revised population and housing targets will be issued to the city and county councils shortly”.

“The minister has asked local authorities to be ready to revise their development plans in order to align with the revised NPF (National Planning Framework) and updated population and housing targets,” said a council spokesperson. The chief executive has committed to keeping the elected members updated.

This prompts the questions:

• What are the targets for housebuilding in different areas in Cork and how do they compare with other regions in Ireland and across the EU?
• Do they measure up to ongoing and projected employment and population growth across different areas around the country?
• If some areas across the country are seeing more housing growth than others, will this not mean that those areas will also be in a better position to see more employment growth and consequent prosperity?
• How and why is this happening?

In three areas in the East of the country Drogheda Rural (227), Killiney (243), and Donaghmede (264) in Dublin and Louth — housing is being delivered at a rate of more than 220 houses per 10,000 people per year.

If the supply policy in the NPF were to be adhered with, there would be 100-145 homes per 10,000 people being built in each of these areas per year. These figures are based on an analysis of ongoing house building and population projects of the Central Statistics Office set against the targets of the NPF, which were revised upwards last year.

These figures would — or should — be available to councillors and other public representatives, particularly those on the Special Purpose Committee (SPC) for housing on both Cork local authorities.

DOUBLED OUTPUT IN THREE YEARS

These high performing districts in the East of the country have doubled their previously high supply outputs in three years, and if all districts were performing as well, it would mean 120,000 new homes being delivered a year, rather than the 34,000 which were delivered last year.

In each of Cork city’s five electoral wards — North East, North West, South Central, South East, and South West — the NPF has set an annual target of 145 per 10,000 of population. These targets in each of the five wards fall well short of what is the likely demand for homes per year over the next 10 years. Part of the reason for this is that in the NPF published in 2018, the jobs growth per year was set at 30,000 new positions per annum over the following 10 years.

In the revised draft NPF published last year this was increased to 38,000 per annum — but the actual figure for jobs growth is around 90,000 extra jobs per year, more than twice the revised figure which was set last year, in advance of economic turbulence precipitated by the US president Donald Trump’s on-again off-again tariffs.

Not one of the eight electoral areas in County Cork is seeing house building at the same rate as being seen in Drogheda rural, Killiney, or Donaghmede. The housebuilding in each of the eight electoral areas is not even close to the rate of 100 homes per year per 10,000 set by the NPF.

DEMAND

Carrigaline Municipal District is one of the fastest growing towns in the county, if not the entire country. According to the same set of figures, the number of new builds needed to meet the demand is 223 homes per 10,000 people. The NPF (draft revision) has set 100 as the target and the actual number projected to be built per year per 10,000 of population over the next 10 years is 57. It’s expected that 64 new builds per 10,000 population will be built in 2025.

In Bandon/Kinsale, the projection is that there will be 72 homes per 10,000 of population completed by the end of the year. Set against the NPF target of 100 houses per 10,000 people it doesn’t seem like much of a shortfall but measured against the estimated real demand of 195 homes per 10,000 people, it falls a long way short.

In Cobh the demand is for 222 homes per 10,000 population but it’s projected that there will be 75 home completions per 10,000 people by year end while the demand is for 222 homes per 10,000. In Fermoy the estimated demand is for 197 homes to be built per 10,000 during 2025 — but the likely number of completions is less than one sixth of that number at just 30 homes per 10,000.

In Kanturk the demand is projected to be at 163 houses per 10,000 people while the actual delivery is estimated to be just 28 per 10,000 —slightly more than 20% of what’s needed. In nearby Mallow, another one of Cork’s major towns, where ongoing steady growth is expected to accelerate in advance of the delivery of the M20 upgrade, the demand is set at 203 houses per 10,000 and the actual delivery is at 36.

Midleton is expecting to see the completion of 80 homes per 10,000 people in 2025 but the estimated real demand is significantly higher at 198. Meanwhile, in Macroom, another district at the heart of growth thanks in part to the completion of the N22 bypass, has expected demand of 213 homes per 10,000 to be built in the municipality but what will be delivered during 2025 is just 50.

Bantry and Skibbereen in West Cork have higher stock baselines — so there’s lower ongoing demand, which is made up in this instance of job growth and the undersupply relative to EU levels. In Bantry the demand is for seven homes per 10,000 to be built during this year while more than six times this number of homes per 10,000 people are likely to be completed while, in the Skibbereen, 51 homes per 10,000 are expected to be built with 116 per 10,000 the real demand.

Turning to Cork city, in the North East ward, there are 84 houses per 10,000 people going to be built in 2025. For the past 10 years, houses have been built at a rate of 41 per year per 10,000, but the actual target to meet demand should be almost five times higher, at 199 homes per 10,000 population per year.

In the North West ward, it is estimated that 17 houses per 10,000 will be built during 2025. The NPF target is 1,145 but the actual demand is for 182 houses. The target is also 145 houses per 10,000 people in the South Central ward, the actual need is for 166 homes but the projected delivery is 29 homes per 10,000 people.

In the South East ward, it is estimated that the total build per 10,000 population will be 64 homes, the NPF target is set at 145 but the actual need to meet demand is three times higher, 192 homes are needed per 10,000 population. In the fifth city ward, there are 80 houses per 10,000 projected to be completed this year against the NPF target of 145. To meet the actual demand out there, there would need to be approximately 250% more homes, 209, being completed by year end of 2025.

INFLATED PRICES

What does the figure of 145 new builds per year in urban areas mean for the house buyer, given that it’s far lower than the actual demand that’s out there?

It means inflated house prices for a start. The reality is that people will go where the jobs are and where the houses are — and that’s to places like Drogheda Rural, Killiney, or Donaghmede — and places where housing is outpaced by demand, as all electoral areas in Cork city and county are, will be in danger of being left behind.

The expenditure for infrastructure such as schools, water and waste water treatment plants, transport routes, creches, power lines, and hubs will go where the houses are being built also. These already wealthy areas are going to get even more wealthy.

As left behind as some Cork city’s five electoral wards will be, County Cork’s eight electoral areas, according to this analysis, will be left even further behind.

The growth gap between rural areas of Cork and other parts of the country and the urban areas to the east appears to be widening and at a speed which is accelerating. This is despite the fact that 2m of the country’s population is living in rural areas in Cork and parts of the country other than the East.

These parts of the country will face even further decline if this trend is allowed to continue.

The answer should be for councillors, who will be asked in the coming months to revise the development plans for their areas, to set much higher targets in order to be in a position to demand more resources to provide or upgrade the infrastructure needed to meet the expected housing demand and to monitor whether these targets are being reached on an ongoing and public basis.