Could we have a new Taoiseach in 2026?
James Cox
Taoiseach Micheál Martin has survived the report into Fianna Fáil's disastrous presidential election, but sources have indicated there is still huge unrest within the party.
There were no shock revelations as the review into Fianna Fáil's presidential campaign was published last week, but Mr Martin was described as "defensive" at the parliamentary party meeting in which it was discussed.
Mr Martin had criticised "inaccurate" commentary ahead of the publication of the report into the selection of Jim Gavin as the party's candidate.
The review found that the party had been asked about possible issues with a former tenant on several occasions before Mr Gavin was officially selected as the Fianna Fáil candidate on September 9th.
Meanwhile, the total spend on the presidential election was around €400,000.
Mr Martin and deputy leader Jack Chambers had heavily backed Mr Gavin, but he withdrew three weeks before the vote after it emerged he owed €3,300 to a former tenant in overpaid rent.
The former Dublin football manager has since repaid the money. He declined to be interviewed for the review, but a legal representative for Mr Gavin requested an advanced copy before its publication.
The report revealed the Taoiseach’s chief of staff Deirdre Gillane, Mr Chambers, and members of the party's press office were told of a potential problem in the days before Mr Gavin became the official candidate.
However, the report does not indicate when Micheál Martin was made aware of the issue.
The review recommends increased vetting for future candidate selection processes, including interviews with family, friends, former colleagues and "political opponents".
The report did not provide the 'smoking gun' some critics of Mr Martin's leadership had expected, however, the meeting was described as "tense" with the Taoiseach "defensive".
Cork MEP Billy Kelleher, who also sought the presidential nomination, said Mr Gavin had been hidden during the campaign.
Other TDs also said Mr Gavin had been "shielded".
The Irish Times spoke to all of the party's TDs and few were willing to go on the record with criticism of the party leader. This in itself suggests Mr Martin is safe for now.
Minister for Justice Jim O'Callaghan has been widely tipped as the most likely successor to Mr Martin.
However, he appears to be biding his time and has always publicly backed the Taoiseach. Mr O'Callaghan has a high profile and his tightening of immigration laws means he is never far from the news.
Mr Chambers could be another candidate. However, he did not emerge from the report into the presidential election in a positive light either.
At 35, the Minister for Public Expenditure may also favour a future bid at the party leadership.
Minister for Higher Education James Lawless and Minister for Transport Darragh O'Brien could also be contenders. However, sources within the party have indicated Mr O'Callaghan would be the firm favourite.
The succession is complicated by the fact that Mr Martin has insisted he will lead Fianna Fáil into the next general election.
Although there is some unrest at his leadership, talks of a no confidence motion (which requires the signatures of 12 TDs) have never materialised.
Behind the scenes, some feel Mr Martin may agree to step down after Ireland's EU presidency ends.
Ireland will hold the Presidency of the Council of the European Union from July 1st to December 31st, 2026.
Some party figures have suggested Mr Martin may hand over the leadership after the presidency ends, allowing a colleague to serve as Taoiseach until the rotation with Fine Gael comes into effect on November 16th, 2027.
This would be nearly a year for a new Fianna Fáil figure to serve as Taoiseach, longer than Simon Harris' nine and a half months after Leo Varadkar stepped down.
