Simon in, Leo out: Did FG learn nothing from referendum loss?

“MEET the new boss, same as the old boss,” goes the lyric to the 1970s hit by The Who.

Ironically, the song is a critique of power and, even more ironically, given the momentous events in Irish politics this week, it’s called Won’t Get Fooled Again.

It’s fitting, since Simon Harris being poised to take over as Taoiseach from Leo Varadkar really is a case of like for like, as far as most voters are concerned. The new boss, same as the old one.

And when it comes to the General Election that’s hurtling down the tracks, it’s the electorate who may well be vowing that they ‘won’t get fooled again’.

Whatever the reasons for Varadkar’s bombshell decision to depart centre stage, the vacancy at the head of Government and of Fine Gael presented that floundering party with an opportunity. A chance to reset and install a fresh new leader at the helm just in time for a multitude of elections.

The party has been suffering in the polls for years, and many of their leading lights were jumping ship in advance of an anticipated hiding in the ballot box.

Their body politic appeared tired and jaded from so long in power - members almost appeared to be looking forward to some time in the political wilderness, out of the firing line.

Then - out of the blue, on Wednesday - came Leo’s announcement that he was joining the Fine Gael exodus, and here was an unexpected gift horse for Fine Gael.

Choose a new leader, and choose wisely, and they may well benefit from the type of ‘new manager’ bounce we often see on the sporting field.

Reader, in selecting Simon Harris, I fear Fine Gael are about to miss an open goal.

This is not to suggest Minister Harris is not a very competent politician, and indeed an agreeable and even likeable man.

It’s just that, to many people away from the Leinster House bubble - the type of people Fine Gael really need to be wooing - Harris appears to be a dose of more of the same: Another young, urban member of the metropolitan elite.

In particular, I would suggest, and most damagingly, like Leo, he appears to be in thrall to NGOs and to view much of modern life through the left hand side prism in the culture wars that have been visited on this country in recent years.

Many of Harris’s achievements during his tenures as Minister for Health, Minister for Justice, and Minster for Higher Eduction, have demonstrated his zeal for political correctness (I refuse to use the now pejorative term ‘woke’).

Just two weeks ago, the big lesson from the referendums that gave the Government a bloody nose was that the public are sick of all this talk of genders, families, and sexuality, and want to see the politicians running the country and grappling with the big issues of housing and health.

In Harris, I fear, Fine Gael have traded in one ‘liberal on a mission to change hearts and minds’ for another.

If, and when, he takes charge, I cannot foresee any bounce for the party in the polls at all. The fact that those within Fine Gael cannot see this and hastily ran to endorse Harris means they will deserve all they get in the elections ahead.

Their Minister Neale Richmond was even asked this week if Harris represented ‘more of the same’, and insisted: “Simon is something different.”

But how? Not amongst the public, I would wager.

And it’s not as though they didn’t have some good alternatives at the upper echelons of Fine Gael. People who assuredly weren’t ‘Leo Lite’.

Paschal Donohoe would have been an excellent choice, and would have certainly improved the party’s standing, while Jennifer Carroll MacNeill would have had the satisfaction of beating Mary Lou McDonald to the title of first female Taoiseach.

Both the above would be a fresh face, and be in a position to move Fine Gael away from the culture wars that have infested its body politic of late.

As for Leo Varadkar... my own view is that he promised much when he became the youngest ever Taoiseach, and he delivered only a little of that promise.

He was statesmanlike at a time when the country needed a steady hand during crises that came at us externally - Brexit, the pandemic, and the Ukraine war - and the economy generally has been good under his watch; you can’t say that for too many of his predecessors.

On the other side of the ledger, his failure to resolve the housing crisis and the general inability of our governments to eke out anything like value for money and punctuality on an array of projects will remain a blot on his record.

All that said, the virulent attacks on Varadkar from the opposition benches after his resignation were opportunistic and uncalled for; a little respect and perspective, even gratitude, is surely required when a Taoiseach calls it a day.

Politicians often rightly point out that the discourse among the public is getting coarser and more threatening, and is deterring potential TDs from standing for election. Perhaps if they displayed more decorum in the Oireachtas, if would help to alleviate this toxicity.

Ultimately, Leo Varadkar found himself in the same quandary as so many other Irish politicians before him. He was a natural centrist who tried to be all things to all people on all sides of the spectrum, from the liberal Left to the free-market Right.

But, ultimately, he was never going to be ‘left’ enough for the Left, and ‘right’ enough for the Right, and incurred the wrath of both sides, and, eventually, he lost the trust of those in the centre who felt he didn’t represent them either.

I will best remember him as the politician who launched his campaign to be Fine Gael leader by declaring he wanted to lead a party for “people who get up early in the morning” - those at the very core of his party’s base... and then did precious little for that large cohort of the taxpaying public.

That said, I wish him all the best in his future endeavours. He is a decent and able man.

Leo’s parting this week sparked a brief abdication crisis in Government. Sadly for Fine Gael, and for voters’ options at the forthcoming elections, the imminent, hasty coronation of Simon Harris will barely register at the ballot box.

Meet the new Taoiseach, same as the old Taoiseach.