IAHC permutations: Plenty to be decided in final round of group fixtures

In any four-team group across the Cork county championships, at the outset there are six possible combinations in terms of which two teams qualify for the knockout stages.

By the final round of games, that number is usually whittled down. There are some instances were two teams are on four points and the other two are on zero, giving only one possible outcome, but usually there are more possibilities than that.

You might think that the maximum number of permutations with just two matches left is four, which is the case when all four teams go into the final round on two points each, each having won one and lost one; however, Group 1 of the Co-op SuperStores IAHC can better that.

While there is not quite the full house of six potential outcomes, there are five different pairings that could still fill the top two spots when the music stops on Friday night.

In the opening round of games, Bandon beat Aghada and then Kilbrittain saw off Russell Rovers; a fortnight ago, the east Cork sides played out a draw before the Carbery neighbours did so too.

It means Kilbrittain and Bandon have three points each but Aghada and Russell Rovers have a point each and so qualification is still within their grasp. Indeed, if one of the Imokilly sides were to prevail, they would definitely qualify, such is the delicate ecosystem at play.

The most straightforward situations involve both of the current leading sides avoiding defeat, in which case they would remain the top two – scoring difference would decide the placings if they both win or both draw, but it would be a Kilbrittain/Bandon combo going forward.

However, if one of Bandon, who play Russell Rovers in Páirc Uí Rinn, or Kilbrittain – up against Aghada in Cloughduv – were to win or draw while the other lost, the defeated side would be knocked out. This is because they would be finishing level on points with the team beating them, losing out on the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Those possible outcomes account for the possibility of Kilbrittain/Russell Rovers or Bandon/Aghada being the pairs advancing.

Then, there is the chance of both of the east Cork sides winning, which would make for a four-way tie on three points, all with one win, one draw and one loss. Scoring difference would be called into play.

At present, the standings in that regard are Kilbrittain on 14, Bandon three, Aghada minus-three and Russell Rovers minus-14. Obviously, if Aghada and Rovers were both to record huge wins, they would manage to effect a complete turnaround; but there is a situation where two wins around the five- or six-point margin would see Kilbrittain still maintain a healthy enough tally to go through along with Aghada. It means that Bandon/Russell Rovers is the only qualification duo that cannot happen.

Group 2 is another where all four sides have a chance of going through and it’s almost a case of two knockout games.

Mallow, after a win and a draw, top the table on three points ahead of their clash with Kildorrery in Mourneabbey. Kildorrery have one point, though, and so a win for them would tie Mallow and give them the head-to-head nod.

The other game features Midleton and Blackrock, both of whom have two points: winners through and losers out, the Magpies taking second in the event of a draw.

Matters are far clearer in Group 3, where wins for Sarsfields’ second team against both Erin’s Own and Youghal have sent them through with a game to spare – and as group winners.

Even if the Riverstown side were to lose to the already eliminated Ballygiblin in Ballyhooly, who have lost to the other two, they would still have head-to-head advantage on the winners of the other game.

That clash in Carrigtwohill is essentially a quarter-final play-off, winner-take-all as both Erin’s Own and Youghal are on two points each – scoring difference with the Caherlag side in the event of a draw.