Munster face Exeter with their season on the line...

Munster travel to Sandy Park in Exeter early on Saturday for a lunchtime showdown with the Exeter Chiefs knowing that a first win on the road since beating the Ospreys in December is required if they wish to keep their European hopes alive.

Some folk may turn their nose up at the Challenge Cup, after being eliminated from the Champions Cup in January, but realistically it is probably Munster’s best chance of silverware this year, and it must be remembered that victory in the final in Bilbao in late May will also bring a Champions Cup qualification spot for 2027, which could end up being extremely valuable in a few months.

Winning in Exeter will not be easy. 

The Chiefs are unbeaten there in a dozen games this season and will be in no mood to grant Munster a first win at the ground in what will be their fourth attempt.

Despite Munster’s considerable issues at scrum time they were in the fight right to the final whistle last Saturday against the Bulls in Pretoria, before losing 34-31, as there is still a lot of quality in the Munster squad, particularly when Jack Crowley and Craig Casey are at half back.

There is currently a huge drop off in standards when one or both of those Irish internationals is absent, but when on the pitch Munster can compete with anyone.

It must be acknowledged that Crowley’s two missed conversions ended up being crucial last weekend. 

The out-half was superb for the 80 minutes, but it is hard not to look at his 3/5 success rate from the boot and then have a glance over to Handre Pollard’s stats of 6/6, and think what might have been. Especially when you consider that Munster had a kickable penalty late on but went to the corner for the victory. 

If Crowley can just get those kicking percentages up he will be one of the best 10s in the game.

And kicking could be crucial on Saturday at Exeter, as we are in cup rugby mode now, where three-pointers can take on far more value than they would in a league or pool game. 

Munster need to take the opportunities that come their way, and if that is a few nice handy three-pointers from the boot of Crowley, then happy days. The above becomes even more important when you consider that in three of their five Champions Cup meetings with Exeter, Munster have failed to score more than 10 points.

That wasn’t an issue in the last two meetings, as Exeter won 32-24 at Sandy Park in a pool game in December 2023, when tries from Calvin Nash, Tom Ahern, Antoine Frisch and Shane Daly earned Munster a losing bonus point, although it ended up being a disappointing result given that the reds had led 10-19 at half time.

DOUR

Munster won the second leg of the last-16 Champions Cup tie at Thomond Park in April 2022 by 26-10 to win on aggregate by 34-23, but the previous three games Munster lost, won and drew to Exeter while scoring just 8, 9 and 10 points.

It will be extremely difficult for Munster to make headway on Saturday if they continue to blow up in the scrum exchanges. 

Every time a Munster player knocks on or gives a marginal forward pass you find yourself wincing, as it feels like the concession of 40/50 metres is incoming from the resultant scrum. That happens six or seven times a game and is akin to conceding line break after line break. 

You have to credit Munster for staying competitive and scoring five tries last week, but ultimately it is not a recipe for success.

It is no surprise to see that Munster have lost eight of their last 12 games given they are effectively playing without a scrum at present. 

Fans can hope for a win out of the blue, but unless Oli Jager can come in and lock the Munster set piece down for an hour in matches for the remainder of the campaign it does feel like the season could easily fizzle out, which would be disappointing given they won their first five games in the URC.