Football League permutations: Lots of possibilities but Cork footballers' destiny in own hands

With one set of fixtures remaining in Division 2 of the Allianz Football League, the only thing that can be said with absolute certainty is that Offaly will finish in eighth place.

Unfortunately for the Faithful County, defeat to Cavan last weekend – their sixth straight loss – condemned them to relegation, three points behind Kildare in seventh.

While the win left Cavan in sixth, the Breffni County are still not guaranteed Division 2 football in 2027 as they are just a point ahead of Kildare. If the Lilywhites were to win at home to Louth, then Cavan would need to avoid defeat away to Derry – if the counties were in a two-way tie, then Cavan would have head-to-head advantage over the Leinster county.

There is another variable to throw into that mix: Tyrone are currently on five points and there could be three counties deadlocked if the O’Neill County lose at home to Cork but the Red Hands do have a far better scoring difference than their two rivals.

The lower reaches of the table naturally has the usual considerations around qualification for the upcoming championship – the relegated sides will be in the Tailteann Cup unless they can reach a provincial final, while fifth and sixth may be in danger depending on how lower-ranked sides fare in their provinces.

Naturally, an away win in Omagh is where our hopes rest – if Cork can achieve that, then they will be guaranteed promotion back to Division 1 for the first time since 2016.

Level on ten points with Meath, Cork will be sure of a top-two finish, and a place in the league final, with a win or a draw against Malachy O’Rourke’s side. However, if they fall to a second defeat of the campaign, then various other possibilities will come into play.

Essentially, it all depends on what the results are around the grounds in Division 2 (all four games have a 1.15pm throw-in on Sunday). If two counties are level on points, then the result of the game between them is used as a the tie-breaker; if that game was a draw, or if there are more than two counties level, scoring-difference will act as the method to determine final placings.

Derry and Louth are tied on eight points in third place and so wins for them – at home to Cavan and away to Kildare respectively – are essential if they are to achieve promotion.

Unfortunately for Cork, if there was to be a three- or a four-way tie, then the 20-point defeat to Derry would have ramifications as their current tally of +2 would be worsened, leaving them outside the top two spots.

If Meath win or draw while Cork lose to end up in a two-way tie, then there would be a contrasting outcome based on who they were level with: if is Derry, then the Celtic Park result would stand in the favour of the Oak Leaf County; however, Cork’s win against Louth in Ardee could prove to be a trump card if Louth win while Derry lose.