Cork are fourth-highest scorers across all divisions but Derry have meanest defence

This Sunday provides the ultimate litmus test of Cork football’s promotion credentials.

The Leesiders hold the only perfect record in Division 2. Still, Derry have plenty of metrics which point to their elevated status.

Their defence, for example, has permitted the fewest scores across all four divisions. 

Oisín McConville’s Wicklow have conceded one point less in terms of total score in Division 4, but that’s down to the fistful of orange flags Meath kicked to trump Derry on the opening night. Even with 10 two-pointers thrown into the mix, their average concession is 0-16 per game.

Only Division 1 table-toppers Donegal and Laois have leaked fewer than Derry’s two goals against. And only Division 3 Down can compare to the 39 white flags the Oak Leaf County have allowed across four games.

By contrast, Cork’s strongest suit has been their volume of one-pointers scored. 

They have notched 61 so far, which is only bettered by London in Division 4 and Armagh’s whopping 79 in Division 1.

The battle to create and close down those pockets of space inside the arc will be decisive on Sunday.

The alternative blueprint for victory may be provided by Meath, who Cork conquered last weekend.

The Royals drilled five two-pointers to supplement their nine white flags to complete a winning total against Derry at Croke Park.

ROOM TO IMPROVE

Overall, Cork have converted nine of their 26 efforts from outside the arc this year for a return of 0-18. That ratio would need some improvement.

There were promising signs as Cork’s success rate with the wind against Meath was their best to date, scoring three from six. 

Mark Cronin nailed two from two, Steven Sherlock converted one from two, while Colm O’Callaghan and Seán McDonnell missed the target.

Sherlock is the best long-distance shooter with four to his name. If he were located outside the arc more, it might even drag Derry out of their defensive shape to create space inside for the likes of Chris Óg Jones to profit.

Cork already know what it’s like facing into a suffocating Derry defence, albeit under the old rules. In the 2023 All-Ireland quarter-final, they mustered 1-8 against that rearguard. Ruairí Deane was the only starting forward to score from play.

Cork have more shooters on the pitch these days. That afternoon, Sherlock and Conor Corbett would’ve been the designated marksmen. 

Now, you have Sherlock, Jones, Cronin, McDonnell, and Dara Sheedy packed into one forward unit, with Corbett and Brian Hurley still to enter into the equation.

They are the highest scorers in Division 2, averaging 1-21 per game, and fourth-best overall behind Mayo, Roscommon, and Down.

Derry’s +26 score difference is double Cork’s +13, although that’s been inflated by their 23-point hammering of Offaly and their former boss Mickey Harte.

Their entire front eight got off the mark, with the inside line of Niall Loughlin (1-4), Shane McGuigan (0-7), and Matthew Downey (1-2) combining for 2-13. It was all but over by half-time when leading 2-17 to 0-3 after booting five two-pointers.

They achieved that without suspended captain and midfielder Conor Glass. Cork, meanwhile, are set to line up without their captain and midfielder Ian Maguire, after his Páirc Uí Rinn dismissal. 

Given the decisive role midfield dominance played against Meath, that is a painful blow.

There are no guarantees in this Division 2. Were Cork to lose and Meath to win, you could yet have a Sunday scenario where John Cleary’s side fall from first to third on score difference. 

Indeed, were those sides to win out their remaining games, you could end up with a three-way tie on 12 points.

Alternatively, were Cork to win on Sunday, the cushion would be such that any positive result in the remaining two games would rubber-stamp promotion. It would be some way to head into their warm-weather training camp in Portugal, which starts on Tuesday.

CONSISTENT

The Rebel footballers have been labelled as streaky in the past. A win this weekend would go some way to casting off that description. 

A loss wouldn’t necessarily cause its application.

The closing fixtures looked punitive at the outset. With Kildare in sixth and Tyrone in fifth, they look a tad less daunting now. 

After years without contending, a pathway to promotion has appeared. It’s up to Cleary’s team to grasp it.

The Cork hurlers’ Division 1A trip to Kilkenny feels somewhat less high stakes, although a victory at Nowlan Park would effectively guarantee a league final berth.

It will be equally interesting to see if any breadcrumbs of the training-ground graft conducted over the past three weeks will be visible as they continue to build upon a strong winning start.

The county will hope that seven wins from seven will become nine from nine by Sunday teatime.