The Longshot: Net losses will always outstrip net gains for journeymen

It’s much easier to contrast than compare the careers of Rafael Nadal and Conor Niland, such was the chasm between the long-standing No 1 tennis player in the world and the high position of 129 the Limerick man achieved in 2010.

Last week, Nadal took his bow from the courts, while Niland’s greatest sporting achievement occurred when winning the William Hill’s Sports Book of the Year award for his excellent biography The Racket.

Niland’s account of his journeyman career is all the more extraordinary for being ordinary.

Don’t buy the book for a run-of-the-mill sporting biography of early talent being married with perseverance, followed by success, overcoming adversity, further success or sometimes obliteration, as the bright glare of fame overwhelms the hero, and then usually redemption.

It’s rather the story 99% of those who participate in sport can identify with: Failure followed by the brutal realisation you will never be good enough to match the dreams you had when you were a child.

Niland got to a level few of us could ever aspire to reach in a professional sport.

It is a journey of quiet desperation in a lonely sport where your own resolve can only get you so far. Anyone who has watched even one episode of Break Point on Netflix will discover how mentally fragile most of the players even in the top 20 on the ATP Tour are.

Niland was the only Irishman on a secondary or tertiary tour where nationhood often decided who you got to hung out with.

Then there is the precarious nature of having a buddy who begins to get a lot more successful than you and suddenly stops talking to you.

As he said last week: “When you retire from a team sport, a lot of these guys really struggle, because they’ve everything done for them.

“They’ve got an in-built bunch of mates. They go to train with them every day, and they don’t have to think about anything. For me, my life improved when I finished on the tour.”

He made it to the main draw of the US Open and Wimbledon. But he never made it past the first round of either, regrettably being forced to withdraw because of a bout of food poisoning against Novak Djokovic on the main Arthur Ashe court in 2011.

Niland earned just shy of €240k during his seven years on the circuit, but spent much more surviving on it. Life on this periphery is a struggle off the court as much as on: With accommodation and travel itineraries, finding a half-decent warm-up partner and the struggles of getting your strings tightened (you’re goosed if this isn’t done properly and you’ll be in a long queue for the person who does it if you are outside the higher echelon).

It’s a vicious circle, those at the top get everything those below them could use just to have a chance of a level playing field.

An account of Andre Agassi being handed a glass of water is one of the most memorable moments in the book.

While it’s not news that sport at the highest level is cutthroat, Niland has criticised Nadal (who he does believe is one of the greatest sportspeople in history) and Roger Federer (who he beat as a junior) for the lack of support they showed for players at the lower end of the game, something he says Djokovic was more vocal about, the financial struggle of those ranked between 100 and 300.

The Serb has a better understanding of adversity as he enters the twilight of his career. He appointed his former rival Andy Murray (who emerges as the nicest ace in Niland’s book) as his new coach last week. He is changing things up as he hunts to become the oldest-ever Grand Slam winner.

Djokovic is 4/1 to stretch past Margaret Court and reach the magical quarter-century mark of majors in Melbourne next January by winning an 11th Aussie crown. Ken Rosewall won the same event at 37 in 1972.

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A soft title is the best way to describe Liverpool’s inevitable march to a record-equalling 20th top-flight crown already surely.

They have moved to odds-on for the first time after their comeback win away to the Saints on Sunday, as Arne Slot is 5/6 to guide the Reds to as many titles as Jurgen Klopp managed to capture in a near decade. It would feel fair to say the German wouldn’t have had them in this position if he had stayed, for all the amazing entertainment his teams provided and all the achievements and near-misses he brought.

They have now won 14 of 16 games this season (a new record for a debut-season Premier League manager across all competitions), having started it at 8/1 to win just their second league title in 35 years.

They face off against Man City (2/1) next Sunday at Anfield and a win in that encounter would be a huge step to securing the title one day into December, barring a near-epic collapse.

City are six points behind where they were this stage last season and in 2022 but it is difficult to see them going on a similar post-Christmas run like the past four seasons.

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 21 matches against City at Anfield, winning 13 with six draws.

Arsenal of course will want to pop their hand up and say they are now the 10/3 second favourites to get over the line after running City close the last two seasons, but the lack of a renowned goalscorer is likely to hinder them again (Haaland has now netted 75 Premier League goals in a record 77 appearances and Salah remains as good as ever when faced with a goalkeeper too, with 10 goals ad six assists in the league).

We do of course have the return of the Champions League tonight too and Liverpool have the not inconsiderable challenge of Real Madrid (3/1) at Anfield tomorrow.

Despite their good form, Madrid and City have mostly kept Liverpool under their thumbs across the past decade.

Liverpool are the only team in the Champions League still sporting a 100% record after four rounds of matches, while Real have lost two of their last three, as many as they had lost in their previous 28. But after winning three successive matches against Real Madrid between 1981 and 2009, Liverpool have failed to win in the previous eight encounters.

Trent Alexander-Arnold is out indefinitely, with no return date set for the full-back linked with a move to Real Madrid this summer.

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We have the Premier League title chasers in action tonight in Europe: City and Arsenal against Feyenoord and Sporting Lisbon respectively.

The Portuguese side have made an impressive start to their continental campaign, collecting 10 points from the first 12 on offer and they trail only Liverpool in the overall table, their most notable win the last day under the now departed Ruben Amorim when they beat City 4-1.

Arsenal suffered their first Champions League defeat earlier this month when losing 1-0 away at Inter Milan. A point apiece in the Portuguese capital has been priced up at 5/2.

City can’t afford to have one eye on the weekend as they need to be in the top eight to ensure the smoothest qualification and they should be a bit good tonight for the 16/1 outsiders, who could be on the end of a backlash from Guardiola’s side after five successive defeats.

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Joe Schmidt was once held in a high regard here that was once occupied only by coaches in other sports like Jack Charlton, Brian Cody and Jim Gavin.

Andy Farrell’s tenure has surpassed him in terms of our confidence as a rugby union nation to such an extent it might make the Kiwi’s head spin.

He brings an Australia side to his old stomping ground on Lansdowne Road as 9/1 outsiders to finish off the November Series.

The Wallabies were 14-point losers to Scotland last weekend after their stunning win at Twickenham the week before and what most of the sport’s fans will be hoping is that he can get them into some shape for the Lions Tour next summer that will be guided by Farrell.

It is just the second time the Aussies have visited Dublin since 2016 and they will be seeking a first away win in the fixture since 2013 — a win that came in what was Schmidt’s second game in charge of Ireland.

The Bet

We went with a long-distance punt on Rory McIlroy for the Masters last week and as you will have to wait half a year to collect on that, there has been a bit of pressure exerted to at least promise more immediate returns.

Go for three draws between Sporting and Arsenal tonight, then Liverpool and Real, and Monaco and Benfica tonight. It will net you over 53/1.