Analysis: Looks like Micheál Martin will be the next Taoiseach

When Micheál Martin was deemed elected on Saturday night, it seemed clear that Micheál Aodh and Cillian Martin weren’t just lifting their father in the air — they were lifting the next Taoiseach.

In recent elections, the Martin clan’s celebrations have typically been subdued, as the Fianna Fáil leader was far more interested in counts around the country then his own.

In 2011 he was measuring the bloodshed, in 2016 he was measuring the recovery, and in 2020 he was doing the difficult maths on the possibility of leading a government.

As the tallies rolled in around the country, there was really no doubt that Fianna Fáil would be the largest party in the Dáil, and no one other than Micheál Martin could make a reasonable argument to be Taoiseach.

As the pints were raised in Nemo Rangers, Fianna Fáil were slipping into marginal seats around the country, pulling well ahead of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, with plenty to celebrate locally too.

Michael McGrath’s first day on the European Commission was Sunday, but he risked calling in late to Ursula Von Der Leyen to make sure he saw his brother elected to the Dáil.

The McGrath operation has never been a one-man show, and even if the outcome was entirely predictable, the emotions were high as Seamus McGrath slipped into the seat the two brothers carved out together over the last 25 years.

In the run up to the election, the fashionable opinion was that whoever out of Labour’s Laura Harmon and the Social Democrats’ Pádraig Rice was ahead on the first count would take the new seat in the expanded Cork South Central five-seater. As the early boxes were tallied, there was a smile growing on the face of Aaron O’Sullivan, Mr Rice’s husband and campaign manager. They were pulling ahead of Ms Harmon where they needed to and the path to a seat was clear.

It was a similar story in Fine Gael, but between Senator Jerry Buttimer and Councillor Shane O’Callaghan.

With his old Bishopstown base brought back into the constituency, the tallies indicated that Mr Buttimer would be heading back to the Dáil.

Meanwhile, it was a disappointing day for Sinn Féin nationally, but they were still singing the ‘Soldier’s Song’ as all three of their Cork TDs defended their seats, with Thomas Gould, Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire and Pat Buckley pulling through.

Cork North Central was the real mystery of the weekend.

From the tallies, there was no doubt that Fianna Fáil’s Pádraig O’Sullivan and Sinn Féin’s Tommy Gould would hold their seats and they were duly elected.

It looked most likely that they would be joined by Fine Gael’s Colm Burke and Independent Ireland’s Kenneth O’Flynn, and on Sunday night this came to pass.

But the last seat was impossible to predict early on with sitting Solidarity-PBP TD Mick Barry facing a gruelling scrap with Fianna Fáil Councillor Tony Fitzgerald and Labour’s Councillor Eoghan Kenny.

The tension only heightened as the weekend went on. Usually within a few eliminations, the final picture becomes clear, but this one remained clear as mud well into Sunday evening.

Each candidate’s camp remained hopeful, poring over the numbers to figure out the various paths that were open, but no one was willing to make a prediction.

For Fianna Fáil, a second seat in Cork North Central would have been the icing on the cake in Cork, but Mr Fitzgerald was eliminated after the thirteenth count.

There was one refrain throughout the weekend from people of all political parties and none — Mick Barry always pulls through.

The sitting TD remained in contention alongside Mr Kenny - but was 35 votes behind and Mr Kenny was elected.

However, a recount was called, which began and was eventually called off yesterday, with Mick Barry conceding.

Around the county, there were few surprises in two constituencies but some shocks in Cork East.

No change in Cork South West, but if she wasn’t otherwise occupied, Holly Cairns would have been celebrating the tripling of her party in Cork, her own jump in the polls, and the surprise breakthrough of her candidates around the country.

In Cork East, Liam Quaide made a stunning return on Sunday after having conceded the election on Saturday night. Fine Gael had been cruising towards two seats, but that last-minute surge sent Mr Quaide just ahead of Mark Stanton.

In Cork North West, it was finally John Paul for the Dáil, as Mr O’Shea of Fine Gael on his third consecutive election jumped ahead of his running mate, Councillor Michael Creed. The bigger surprise here was Aindrias Moynihan. Based on the election boundaries running mate Michael Moynihan seemed a dead cert, but Aindrias was telling people he was in trouble with Ballincollig being moved out of the constituency, a believable campaign tactic as he did so well out of there in recent years. And the tactic worked - he topped the poll.