Ireland's housing output could be as low as 32,000 units, according to new report

Kenneth Fox

Ireland’s output of new homes is stagnating and is likely to fall short of targets set by the Government for a second year, a new report has forecast.

As the Irish Examiner reports, analysis by construction consultancy firm Mitchell McDermott says housing output this year could be as low as 32,000 units.

Despite a surge in construction starts of new homes last year, Mitchell McDermott said planning permission was granted for just 35,000 homes last year — one of the lowest figures over the last six years and down from 41,000 in 2023.

Paul Mitchell, one of the report’s authors, said unless drastic measures are introduced immediately there is little chance of the new Government reaching its target of 300,000 new homes by 2030.

He said one of the key areas which must be addressed is the “high mortality rate” of applications for housing schemes in our fast-track planning system, with only 40 per cent of housing developments seeking permission proceeding to construction.

Between 2018 and 2024, planning was submitted for just under 200,000 units in strategic housing developments (SHDs) and large-scale residential developments (LRDs).

“Our figures show schemes accounting for almost 42,000 units (21 per cent) were refused, a further 27,000 (13.5 per cent) were subjected to judicial reviews, and 11,000 (5.5 per cent) are awaiting a decision,” Mr Mitchell said.

“In the end, schemes with just over 112,000 units or 56 per cent of total applications received usable permissions.

That figure is disappointingly low, but even more disappointing is the fact that another 29 per cent of these units have not been constructed or commenced construction.

“This means that only 40 per cent of the original number of planning applications, 80,000, have been developed or are in the process of being developed.”

“Given the scale of our housing crisis, it’s vital we understand why the attrition rate is so high and address blockages in the system.

“It’s also clear we need to drive up the number of planning applications.

"Based on current ratios, if we want to build 50,000 units a year, we would need to have planning applications for 125,000 units submitted every year," the report said.