John Dolan: From cock-a-hoop to cock-up, an annus horribilis for Micheál

That old saying about a week being a long time in politics is a load of baloney, when you think about it.

It was coined in the 1960s and belongs to a different era, when the pace of life, the media, and politics all pootled along at a steady pace.

Yes, events could rapidly derail politicians and governments in those days, as they can today, which was the point of the quote - but more often than not, a week won’t make a drastic difference to a politician’s life one way or the other.

A helluva lot can happen in a year in politics though.

Take Micheál Martin’s last 12 months.

In mid-November, 2024, the Cork man was at the peak of his powers, the epitome of a successful career politician.

Forty years ago, he secured election to then Cork Corporation for Fianna Fáil, and his steely determination and wily patience had taken him right to the top. Three years later, he was a TD for his home city, then came ministries, the leadership of his party, and, ultimately, and gloriously, his crowning as Taoiseach.

A year ago, critics of Micheál Martin within and outside Fianna Fáil were few and far between. Nobody was talking about his ‘stranglehold’ on his party, and even his political opponents had a wary respect for him.

His strengths were certainly winning Fianna Fáil politicians and voters over again this time last year, in the run up to the general election on November 29.

His coalition partner Simon Harris had been appointed the youngest ever Taoiseach six months earlier, and Fine Gael had been rampant in the polls.

Remember the ‘Harris hop’?

When the election was called, it appeared Fianna Fáil were going to surrender much of their traditional centre ground vote - but Micheál used all the tools in his box and proceeded to play a blinder.

Through the course of that campaign, his sure and steady personality and patient demeanour gradually hauled back Fine Gael, until the two were neck and neck in the polls. By the week of the vote, Fianna Fáil were clear leaders and the ‘Harris hop’ was halted. Talk about the tortoise and the hare!

It was remarkable that a man who had been a key player in the previous government managed to convince enough of the electorate that he was both the cause of and the solution to the housing shortage and the cost-of-living crisis.

At the polls, Fianna Fáil remained the largest party after the vote, increasing its number of seats to 48, ten more than Fine Gael.

The main reason for that success was undoubtedly the man who now assumed the mantle of Taoiseach once again - Micheál Martin.

A year later, and you do wonder how he would answer this question: Where did it all go wrong?

Because go wrong it undoubtedly has.

Where to start?

Well, there was the hullabaloo over the independents, including Michael Lowry, bolstering the coalition, and then a row over Dáil speaking rights which was unedifying and dragged on for ages.

Critics blamed both on Micheál Martin’s intransigence, and there was a sense among the public that the new government were playing silly beggars instead of getting on with the issues they had been elected to hastily resolve.

Then it emerged that the figure of 40,000 promised homes in 2024 trumpeted in the run up the election by Micheál and others turned out to be just 30,330.

That was galling for voters too.

However, it was the entire farce over the presidential nomination in recent months that really did great, and possibly fatal damage to the Cork TD’s political career.

The dawdling, the support for Jim Gavin, the apparent blithe indifference to Fianna Fáil stalwarts who might fancy a tilt at the Áras themselves - ambition, be damned! - the surprising bump of support within the party when Billy Kelleher challenged the status quo...

All the above severely dented Micheál’s reputation and resulted in a left-wing backed candidate taking the prize - he (and Simon Harris) had handed an unlikely win to their biggest rivals in the Dáil.

All of it was uncharacteristically sloppy for the Cork man - and amidst it all came a budget which left ordinary working people and families feeling neglected and unloved. As Taoiseach, Micheál Martin bore the brunt of the blame for that too.

You don’t get to be leader of Fianna Fáil for 14 years without knowing how to play the long game, and the Taoiseach knows all too well that the first year or two of a government is the best time to carry out unpopular actions, before the business of getting back into power rears its head.

It’s a cynical approach, yes, but it can be brutally effective.

But it appears, thanks to the presidential debacle in particular, that the Turners Cross man has taken this too far, and written his own political death warrant.

The talk now is not if Micheál Martin will be toppled as Fianna Fáil leader, but when.

The only reason his position has not already been threatened is timing. Potential successors, such as justice minister Jim O’Callaghan, must know that there is little point in starting a heave a year into a new government, especially at a time of some economic uncertainty.

Better to sit it out, surely, maybe even until Micheál’s term as Taoiseach ends in 2027?

Then again, if the Taoiseach commits any more missteps, or if the polls for the party and its leader continue to flounder, that day could arrive sooner.

When that day arrives, the Cork man can leave with his head held high. He has served almost 15 years as leader of the party he has always revered, a remarkable achievement in the modern social media driven soundbite age.

He will be living proof that not all political careers end in failure

What next for Micheál?

He turned 65 in August, and there is speculation that his son may enter politics, so perhaps his future lies in Brussels, while you wouldn’t rule him out of a tilt for the presidency in 2032, when he may come up against his fellow Cork politician Billy Kelleher on the hustings.

His entry to the race, of course, would depend on the whims of the Fianna Fáil, leader. How ironic would that be?