John Dolan: My €9.57 tip for Grand National - and strange theory behind it!

Ah, Aintree Grand National day.

Like the TV close-ups of azaleas at the U.S Masters, it’s one of the sporting signs that spring has arrived, along with the inevitable collapse of Arsenal’s title hopes (like the swallows, that arrived a bit earlier this year).

The annual marathon horse race in Liverpool has long captured the imagination, not just of fans of the Sport of Kings, but of ordinary Joes like me who don’t bet on a horse from one year to the next.

Here in Cork, there is bound to be plenty of money lashed out on Lisgoold jockey Paul Townend today, as he seeks to become the first man to win back-to-back Nationals since... oh, that would be Youghal jockey Davy Russell back in 2019. (It’s a Cork thing, boy!).

And at this juncture, I would urge anyone looking for tips and guidance on who to back to seek out the experts on our sports pages.

However, if you want to know which horse in this year’s race has my heart a-flutter, then read on...

You see (lean in closer, I’m whispering conspiratorially), I have a theory about the Grand National, and I am going to share it with you.

I have used this tried-and-tested theory to come up with a few winners down the years - not that often, mind, I’m not quite up to Bertie Ahern’s lucky level on the gee-gees. But I’ve had some notable successes.

So, without further ado, the name of this year’s winner of the 4pm race at Aintree is...

Drum roll... (no, that’s not it).

My hunch is that Senior Chief will win today, at rather handsome odds of 25-1.

Why so?

Well, it’s all in the name...

First, a history lesson.

Did you know that the first ever winner of the Grand National, way back in 1839, was called Lottery?

How about that for a piece of nominative determinism (which literally means, ‘name-driven outcome’)?

Because the National is really nothing but a lottery.

Think about it: 30-odd horses running four-and-a-quarter miles for nine minutes, and trying to avoid each other while hurdling 30 fences, one of which, at 5ft 2in, is as high as Reese Witherspoon. I mean, you try jumping over Reese Witherspoon. Then do it with a diminutive actor on your back.

Little wonder that in the last 50 editions of the Grand National, there have only been nine winning favourites. Since the war, more than half of them have failed to even complete the treacherous course. Many have come a cropper at the Reese Witherspoon fence.

Since Lottery was the aptly-named first winner of the National, I have always kept an eye out for the names of horses which stand out for a topical reason when placing my annual bet on the Aintree race.

And it’s a hunch that has paid off for me a good few times.

Like last year, when I Am Maximus won. Did I back it because Corkman Townend was on board? No, I backed it because what was the big blockbuster movie of 2024... Exactly, Gladiator II.

The first time my formula paid off was in 1992, when Party Politics won at 14-1 in the week a general election was held in the UK - spooky!

It happened again in 1994, when I had just bought my first house, and I backed Miinnehoma at 16-1.

Of course, the formula doesn’t work every time - just enough for me to kid myself that I have cracked the omerta and am in tune with the cosmos.

Sometimes, I admit, I overthink things, but still get it right.

For instance, I do recall backing the 2016 winner Rule The World at an excellent 33-1, purely because the lyrics of the Take That song of that name a few years earlier included the line ‘Yeah, you and me, we can ride on a star...’ Geddit?

I attributed that to my theory, but friends just said it was outright luck. Sure, what do they know? Losers.

Anyhow, Rule The World galloped home in first place, leaving me with the same two questions that run through the mind of every man who has won a sizeable bet on the horses: What will I do with the winnings? And will I tell the wife?

I also recall desperately trying to find a nominative reason why Cork horse Monty’s Pass would win in 2003, given that it was trained by Jimmy Mangan out in Conna. I couldn’t come up with one and, given I had just become a dad, probably went for something with ‘Boy’ in its name instead.

Reader, that was not the first time the eldest lad has cost me a small fortune...

And, yes, just in case you haven’t twigged yet, this name formula I have doesn’t just relate to world events or universal themes - it can be personal too.

Which brings me to the 2025 race.

I mean, I figure there has to be some kind of Donald Trump connection to the winner this year. Love him (?) or loathe him, he has certainly made this year all about him.

The U.S President is, of course, also widely known as the Commander in Chief.... hence Senior Chief will win today’s race. Simples.

When I checked out Senior Chief’s form, I began to get quite excited that I had stumbled upon The One.

“This lightly-raced chaser appeals, with plenty of scope for improvement off his mark,” ran one report.

“Senior Chief was a convincing winner at Cheltenham at the start of the season.

“He slightly underperformed in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, but... some of his novice chase form reads well, and he should be well suited by this stiffer stamina test.”

Plus, Senior’s Chief jockey colours will be light blue - perfect for us Manchester City fans.

So, my precious €9.57 will be placed on him today.

You can thank me after he wins. Or, er, call me every name under the sun when he loses, whichever works best for you.

As for that €9.57 stake? Bit specific, you ask?

Well, that came from the cosmos too. Last week, I had zilch in my online betting account, which is not unusual given I am an infrequent gambler.

I was offered a free spin on the website of a game of roulette, which won me a free scratchcard. Said scratchcard then won me €3.71, a sum which I placed on Crystal Palace to win their FA Cup tie at Fulham. That came in too.

Now I have €9.57 in my account, and I’m putting it all on Senior Chief.

I’m on a roll. Wish me luck!

Sure, it’ll be Grand...