Rugby Talking Points: Ireland wary of Italy given scrum problems and debate about Prendergast

Under-pressure Ireland know that only victory will do on Saturday at the Aviva Stadium against an Italian side buzzing from last weekend’s win over Scotland.

In the defeat to France, Ireland looked like a team that were all out of ideas. The only strategy they could come up with was to kick the ball high into the Parisian sky and hope for the best. They did this over and over, regardless of whether they were on the front foot or playing with slow ball. 

France just mopped up these Jamison Gibson-Park box kicks with ease and used these possession concessions to go after Ireland with their excellent backline.

A similar approach on Saturday would be asking for trouble as, under Gonzalo Quesada, Italy have no qualms about keeping the ball alive and going wide. 

Surely Ireland will be braver against a side they have never lost a home Six Nations game to. 

If not, Italy could easily make a mockery of the 20-point handicap and make it an uncomfortable afternoon for struggling Ireland.

Centre Nacho Brex sits this one out for the Azzurri due to family reasons, but they are boosted by the return of livewire full back Ange Capuozzo, who will relish running at Ireland if they keep kicking it long. 

Scrum-half Stephen Varney is also available again to add an experienced option at half-back.

HARD EDGE

Italy under Quesada are not the soft touch they used to be. They won two games in the championship two years ago, beat Wales last year to avoid the Wooden Spoon and are thinking that the sky is the limit following their win over Scotland.

That 18-15 win in Rome was no fluke, even if they did most of the damage on the scoreboard early on before the weather made it a bit of a lottery late on.

Their scrum was extremely impressive, which is a worry. The Irish scrum did hold up well in Paris but France never really went after it. 

That is unlikely to be the case on Saturday, as props Simone Ferrari and Danilo Fischetti are likely to test the notion that penalties can be won against this Ireland front row.

Likewise, Italy prospered in the aerial exchanges against Scotland’s back three. 

Given how poor Ireland were in the air against France this is another facet of the game that Italy will target.

Farrell’s reluctance to build depth in recent years is coming home to roost now that a number of players are either unavailable or out of form. There are few options to replace the back three that struggled in Paris, while, bar the returning Tadhg Furlong and the emerging Edwin Edogbo, it is difficult to see how the pack can be strengthened.

Farrell was hoping that some players would put up their hands in the A game against England at Thomond Park last Friday but they got trounced too. No hands were raised.

A lot of attention will centre on what Farrell does at outhalf. The elevation of Sam Prendergast clearly has not worked. He is now up to cap 14 and unfortunately there are no signs that he is up to the rigours of international rugby.

Will Farrell swap him out this weekend or will he stick, in the hope that in this perceived 'easier' fixture, Prendergast can justify the faith Farrell and, presumably, Johnny Sexton, have in him? 

It looks like an extreme case of sunk cost fallacy, and one that will ultimately end up defining the Farrell tenure.

Ireland were Six Nations champions when this experiment started. They are sinking now. 

Prendergast is not to blame, as he does not pick himself. It was a punt that was not needed, and to double down on the gamble when all available evidence suggests it was clearly wrong would lead us to question whether this coaching team is the correct one to lead Ireland towards the World Cup.

There is a real air of doom and gloom around Ireland now. It would certainly be a significant turnaround for Farrell to get Ireland back to the levels of two or three years ago.

In fact, it might end up being his biggest coaching achievement if he can manage it.