Munster Hurling: Permutations of tonight's clash between Clare and Tipperary

Halfway through the Munster Senior Hurling Championship and each team has played two games.

Cork are top, only ahead of Limerick on scoring difference. Waterford lie third with one win and one defeat, Clare and Tipperary are fourth and fifth, separated by scoring difference. Both teams are without a win. They face one another this evening in Ennis.

The loser is almost certainly going to be eliminated – though that isn’t guaranteed. Tipperary could lose to Clare, and have one game left while Cork, Limerick and Waterford all have two to play, and the Premier could still qualify for the round robin phase.

PERMUTATIONS OF CLARE WIN 

Should Clare get the better of Tipp, Liam Cahill’s men would need to beat Waterford in their next game and hope that Cork lose to both Limerick and Waterford. Tipp would also need a Limerick win over Clare. 

That would leave Cork, Clare and Tipp tied on three points – with scoring difference then coming into play.

Should Cork beat Limerick, or Clare beat Limerick – nothing Tipp could do would be enough. Tipp would need Limerick to lose both. In that scenario, there’s a chance.

Assuming a Clare win this evening, if Cork beat Limerick and Waterford, Clare beat Limerick, and Tipp defeat Waterford – they would have a chance at making it out.

Two Limerick defeats wouldn’t be sufficient if the Rebels lose to Waterford – because that would leave Clare on five points with Cork, while Waterford (4 points) would edge out Limerick and Tipp (3 points each).

Irrespective of the probabilities associated with those games, it’s not an outcome Tipp can bank on. They really do need to beat Clare.

For the Banner on the other hand, win tonight and against Limerick, they’re through. With a chance of a Munster final appearance, too.

If Clare lose to Limerick – they can still make it out of Munster, but only if Cork and Tipperary both beat Waterford. They’d be reliant on scoring difference, but this is very much a possible outcome for Brian Lohan’s side.

PERMUTATIONS OF TIPPERARY WIN 

If Tipp beat Clare, they’ll join Limerick and Cork on three points each. Beat Waterford and they’ve guaranteed a place in the All-Ireland series and possibly even a Munster final – should the loser of Cork and Limerick suffer defeat in their final round of games.

But if they beat Clare and lose to Waterford, they’re in trouble. They’d again be reliant on Cork or Limerick to lose both of their remaining two games. A draw against the Déise would be a much better alternative, given they could then afford a Clare win versus Limerick.

To go with that, if Cork beat Limerick and Waterford, assuming Clare beat Limerick – Tipperary would make the Munster final as long as they drew with Waterford and beat Clare tonight. Confusing, I know. 

It shows just how tricky it’s going to be for Clare and Tipp.

From a Clare perspective, if they lose to Tipperary – they’re effectively done. Even if they beat Limerick in the final round of fixtures, a Treaty win over Cork, a Cork win over Waterford and a Tipperary win over Waterford would leave Clare fourth.

If Waterford can win just one of their games with Cork or Tipp, Clare are out. The only way Clare can get through with a defeat to Tipp, is if they get the better of Limerick, and Waterford win both of their remaining games.

That would leave Clare, Tipp and the loser of Cork/Limerick on three points. Scoring difference will determine who goes through in that scenario.

PERMUTATIONS OF DRAW 

A draw this evening would leave both Tipperary and Clare on two points. If that happens, they both need to win their final round robin games. Defeat would see them eliminated and a third draw would see them reliant on scoring difference in a best case scenario.

But if the two draw tonight and win their final games, one of the two will likely be headed for a Munster final.

Let’s assume Cork win both of their remaining games. Then have Tipperary beat Waterford and Clare beat Limerick. That would leave the Rebels top on seven with Clare and Tipp tied for second and third with four points each.

That situation would see Limerick and Waterford eliminated.

Tipperary beating Waterford and Clare beating Limerick still may not be enough if they share the points this evening.

If Limerick defeat Cork and Cork beat Waterford, we’ll have a Cork-Limerick Munster final, with scoring difference there to determine whether Tipperary or Clare go through.

There are still so many variables with two rounds to go – but of Clare and Tipperary, the latter are in a better position right now. They may not be when the final whistle goes tonight, though.