The Longshot: Trio in contention for Ballon d’Or need semi-final wins

HERE we are, blowing on our fingernails and modestly looking away as we casually drop into the first paragraph that our 34/1 double on the Champions League clicked last week.

We backed up our 2-2 prediction for Real and Bayern with plenty of dope on why the game was likely to see a few goals, and proposed that PSG would make life hard for themselves in Dortmund. Send the chocolates to the usual address.

We might as well make a fist of predicting what will happen in the second legs considering it went so well last week. Could everybody take that look of surprise off their faces? Mbappe and co welcome the Germans from the Ruhr Valley to Paris tonight, aiming to reach just their second final in the competition.

The world’s most heralded player is 11/4 to pick up his first Ballon d’Or this year, but reaching the final is probably necessary to guarantee he gets it. He is 8/15 to get on the score sheet tonight. Niklas Fulkrug´s fine first-half strike last Wednesday sees the Germans bring a one-goal advantage with them. However they are 13/10 outsiders to progress to their first final in 11 years (their only win was back in 1997, which for some reason is 27 years ago — could whoever is leading the march of time slow down the music please?)

The decider in 2013 was the last to be held in Wembley, this year’s venue too, and it is 9/2 that Munich will meet Dortmund in the final there once again. PSG have won nine of their last 13 games played at the Parc des Princes in the competition, but they did slip to a 3-2 defeat against Barcelona in the quarter-final first leg there last month.

They have three clean sheets in 17 home matches since November so Dortmund will be confident of netting tonight, something they have failed to do in only two of their last 19 away games. Dortmund topped the group they were both in earlier in the tournament, but lost 2-0 in the Paris fixture and drew 1-1 in the final group game in Germany. PSG have never emerged from a two-legged semi, having lost all five they have played in, and their only success was in a one-match covid face-off with RB Leipzig.

Jadon Sancho was in the form of his life during last week’s fixture, although that was in contrast to an underwhelming past few years. Can the loanee from Man United outshine Mbappe tonight? Or will the French maestro set up a possible meeting with his next club Real in the decider? The latter seems more likely and considering PSG butchered a lot of good chances last week, I’d opt for them to advance.

That brings us to Real v Bayern. England’s great hopes for this summer will be pinned mostly on Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane bagging goals in Germany at the Euros, and they are 3/1 and 4/1 respectively to win the Ballon d’Or.

Tomorrow evening the Spanish side are 4/9 to get a pop at winning a 15th title, while it is 17/10 Bayern deny them. Real, who picked up a 36th La Liga title at the weekend, head the outright market to win that 15th at 6/5, with Munich, who stumbled to their seventh league defeat of the season losing 3-1 away to third-placed Stuttgart, are 7/2.

Vertical vendetta helps to air Vale grievance

WHO doesn’t like a good grudge? Mostly these days brickbats are traded on social media, but when someone goes that extra mile (vertically into the air even) you have to give them some respect.

Flying a banner from an airplane with lyrics from Tom Jones’ ‘Delilah’ was the dish of revenge served up by Ryan Burge following Port Vale’s relegation to League Two. A dish that was 11 years of preparation.

The club’s former midfielder parted company with the club by “mutual consent” in 2013 after he was dropped by then manager Micky Adams for missing a pre-match team meal.

Back then, Burge took to Twitter to put his side of the story across, and Adams responded by saying Burge’s tweets were “absolute nonsense” and he was suspended for two weeks for breaking the club’s social media guideline” after club management claimed he refused to apologise for the incident.

Burge left the club with three games to go that season but has carried the vendetta since.

He often mocks Vale fans on social media and refers to them as ‘Port Fail’, but took the feud to new heights when he acquired a pilot’s licence and flew a banner with ‘She stood there laughing — N40,’ referencing Vale’s rivals Stoke City’s anthem and ultras, after Vale were relegated to the fourth tier.

“Thank you to the Stoke City fans who paid me to do something I would have happily done for free,” Burge posted after landing.

“A bit of a shaky takeoff but I put that down to the excitement. However, once I got her up in the sky it was smooth all the way from there and a shout out to my instructor Geoff who was guiding me all the way. Fail Park looks like an even bigger ****hole from the sky.

“This is an experience I will cherish for the rest of my life.” He didn’t let it go there: “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Lots of Love, Player of the Year in your only automatic promotion season since 1994,” he wrote on Twitter, along with a picture of himself in a Vale jersey with ‘No promotions without me’ written on it.

It seems unlikely any ex-Hatters or ex-Clarets will go to such lengths to lord it over Luton or Burnley if their Premier League relegation is confirmed this weekend.

They are 1/12 and 1/66 respectively to ensure that all three clubs promoted last season go straight back down for the first time since 1998. Nottingham Forest are 17/2 to mess that stay up.

Trimming with sideline cuts

WHISPER it but could the Leinster Hurling Championship be better fare than what’s occurring in Munster this season?

Tipp and Waterford’s draw was a fine game, if short on quality, and opens it up for Cork to drag themselves back into reckoning.

Wexford beating Galway means they are the most intriguing prospect out there at the moment.

Antrim now head to Dublin on Saturday afternoon hoping to take a second scalp, after their surprise win over the Model county.

Former Tipp goalie Daren Gleeson is in charge of the Saffrons and struck a defiant note after his side delivered a gut punch to the Yellowbellies following a four-point win in the second round, just a week after shipping a 32-point defeat to Kilkenny.

“We died a death by a thousand swords. They took out the swords after what happened in Nowlan Park… We were ridiculed for what we are doing up here and are easy targets,” said Gleeson of the lack of respect Northern hurlers get.

A thousand swords? Former Kerry footballer and now pundit James O’Donoghue said something similar a couple of seasons back, referring to a defeat by a “thousand stab wounds”.

The practice (unfortunately it is not simply a proverb) of ‘slow slicing’ torture was of course ‘death by a thousand cuts’ and was performed mostly in the Far East and is now outlawed. It is meant to cause a prolonged and drawn-out execution, the exact opposite of what you get with stabbing, or plunging swords.

Mixed metaphors are always welcome here, and Antrim are now 4/1 to deliver some capital punishment on Saturday.

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LAST-chance saloon for the Cork hurlers this season, and who is in the opposite corner but probably the greatest hurling side of all time.

Might Limerick presume they are already through to the All-Ireland series and not be at full throttle on Saturday evening? A forlorn hope for Cork fans probably.

The Rebels are 3/1 to kick their year back into gear and beat Limerick for the first time in the Championship in five years, since they won in the Gaelic Grounds by seven points in the second year of the round-robin format.

Limerick are 1/3 to motor on and secure a spot in the Munster final and edge three games away from history.

The draw is 10/1.

The Bet

THE sports editor’s withering stares have shortened in duration in recent months thanks to several winning combinations being predicted, but there is no point getting ahead of ourselves. Or is there? Let’s try another double in the Champions League at a slightly bigger price than last week and go for PSG to repeat a 2-0 win at 17/2 and Real and Bayern to go to extra time after a draw at 3/1. Pair them up and you will get odds of 35/1.