Cost of Cork city flooding could rise to €187m per year due to climate change

The annual cost of flooding in Cork city could increase 10-fold to €187m by 2050 from damage due to climate change, according to a study.

A new report commissioned by the State’s environmental watchdog also warned that a large proportion of the estimated increase in future flood costs in Cork city will be borne by areas that are currently considered relatively safe from flooding.

The study expressed concern that the rate of housing development being permitted across Ireland in areas prone to flooding has accelerated in recent times, with the trend most pronounced in medium-risk zones. It claimed the pattern was most evident in areas where there was a high demand for housing.

Another finding revealed that properties at risk of flooding sell with an average discount of 4%, relative to similar properties located outside flood risk areas.

The study, Climate Resilient Places, was commissioned by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to improve the understanding of future risks related to climate change at a highly local level in Ireland, particularly in relation to flood hazards.

Researchers from the University of Galway used a model to simulate the future impact of flooding on Cork based on conditions which resulted in widespread flooding of the city in November 2009.

The study estimated the cost of the damage caused by the flooding 17 years ago was €104m based on official figures published by the Office of Public Works.

The scale of flooding in Cork in 2009 was believed to be an event that would only occur once every 160 years.

Current annual flooding cost

The annual current cost of flooding in Cork is calculated at €18m.

The report said the ten-fold increase in the cost of flooding by 2050 to €187m “underscores the urgent need for adaptive policy measures to protect lives, infrastructure and the economy.”

It added: “Myopic investments and planning decisions today increase exposure to, and ultimately costs associated with, flooding in the future.”

It also noted that the modelling predicted that climate-induced flooding was likely to impact areas previously deemed low risk and thereby expanding the city’s floodplain.

Researchers noted that almost two-thirds of the estimated increase in damage costs related to locations that are currently not expected to flood even in a 1-in-100 years event. The study said very large increases in damage costs from flooding would arise from both high-frequency minor flood events and rarer, “more extreme” major flood events.

It acknowledged that any flooding in Cork City, which tends to be concentrated in the central business district, will result in far greater damage and related costs to commercial buildings than residential properties.

Damage to commercial properties

The report said the estimated €187m cost of flooding in Cork City in 2050 included over €110m of damage to commercial properties.

However, the report said future flooding is also likely to result in additional costs in the form of intangible losses from disruption to people’s lives, stress, anxiety and illness. It estimated such intangible costs by 2050 at €30m, while the cost for utility companies would be almost €24m and for emergency services would be just under €10m.

Researchers claim their findings indicated that €68m of damage in 2050 will be related to buildings in Cork City not currently deemed at risk from flooding, while only €38m will be accounted for by properties already at risk.

However, the study said its findings showed that the pursuit of compact urban development, such as in Cork City, could come at the cost of further development in areas at risk of flooding.

Houisng units

It revealed that 10,000 housing units were granted planning permission across the Republic between 2016 and 2022 in flood risk zones, including 4,000 in medium-risk locations.

Researchers said their findings indicated that in cities and satellite urban towns, flood risk was not a significant determinant on the likelihood of a planning application being rejected.

“The analysis lays bare the consequences of unabated climate change at the very local level."

The study said policymakers will be faced with increasingly stark choices between funding large-scale flood defence investments or paying enormous bills for recovery assistance in the aftermath of each new flood event.

“Ultimately the intensification of risk will result in higher costs to the public purse,” it stated.

It said its findings also indicated the engagement of the public about the concept of building climate resilient places and communities was still in its infancy in Ireland.