Report says as many as 170 extra GPs needed in Cork and Kerry by  2040  

As many as 170 additional GPs will be needed in Cork and Kerry by 2040, according to a recent report by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

As of 2023, there were 591 GPs in the South West area, covering Cork and Kerry, the report says.

“The growing and ageing population will increase demand for general-practice services across all six HSE health regions in the coming years. Consequently, the workforce will need to increase substantially in each region to meet this demand,” the report explains.

By 2040, between 136 and 173 additional GPs will be needed, an increase of 23% to 29%, due to projected population growth.

Age structure

In addition to an increase, the population age structure will also change between 2023 and 2040, with a reduction in the percentage of people aged less than 15 and an increase in the percentage aged 65 and older. The latter visit the GP more frequently.

The projection data also incorporates increases in demand for GP consultations associated with the rise in the number of people eligible for a free GP visit card, because eligibility has recently increased and is likely to do so further.

This analysis requires quantifying the number of people who will become eligible and estimating the impact of having a GP visit card on GP consultation rates.

Increase

An even larger increase in the need for general-practice nurses is also predicted.

There were 387 GP nurses in the South West region as of 2023, but an additional 116 to 132 will be required in 15 years’ time, a 30% to 34% rise.

In 2023, there were 2,814,000 GP consultations in Cork and Kerry, but 630,000 to 807,000 more than this are expected to be needed in 2024.

Other recent reports by the ESRI suggested that an additional 3,050 to 4,088 nursing-home beds and 560 to 925 hospital beds will be required across Cork and Kerry by 2040.