Forecaster: 'Cork should be split into four or five areas for weather warnings'

Cork should be split in to four or five areas for weather warnings, says Cathal Nolan, founder of Ireland’s Weather Channel, who won a national award as a University College Cork researcher.

Mr Nolan told The Echo: “My entry point in to weather was through the eyes and world of my father. He was a private pilot, who would fly small aircraft at our local club in Offaly, and, as a consequence, the weather was something I was immersed in from an early age.

“One of my earliest memories is sitting on the couch beside him; we never missed a weather forecast.

“I was very fascinated by weather, on account of this, and it was a passion that developed further. Going on holidays, I’d look forward to seeing different types of weather we wouldn’t see in Ireland.”

Cathal was interested in geography and history in school, and in where they intersected, in past severe weather events. After studying geography and history at University College Dublin, he completed a master’s in the science and impacts of climate, then spent a year and a half as a researcher in UCC’s geography department.

While there, he won the Emerging Scholar Award at the Venice International Climate Change Conference in 2020.

“After winning the Emerging Scholar Award, covid happened and it kind of curtailed things. I finished up in UCC and began a career with an international forecasting company, and spent a couple of years forecasting in Aberdeen, Scotland.”

Ireland’s Weather Channel

Throughout this time, he had been working on Ireland’s Weather Channel, which he had set up in 2013, in parallel to his education and career.

“We began as Offaly’s Weather Channel, then changed to Midlands Weather Channel. Then we started doing national coverage and became Ireland’s Weather Channel.

“Along the way, there were a few particularly severe weather events, which helped in terms of the reach we had - Hurricane Ophelia, which had a significant impact on Cork, and the now infamous Beast from the East.

“We could see the conditions developing and were one of the first to openly say what conditions people could expect and what they would bring, which helped get our name out there.”

Cathal appeared on several radio channels, including local Cork stations and national ones, developing a strong reputation for accurately predicting the weather.

Localised forecasts

Cathal said: “We pride ourselves in our ability to communicate with our followers through a mobile number service on a very localised level.

“When we think of weather forecasts, news organisations were always responsible for the delivery of it, but the advent of social media and apps has changed that.

“We’re the first organisation to offer very personalised forecasts from qualified meteorologists, and that sets us apart from the rest a little.”

His father values the service: “He was so passionate about it, and to see how far I have taken that passion is very satisfying for him,” Cathal said.

“He has his own weather forecast station at our family home in Offaly, and still goes out every evening at midnight to record the rainfall.”

The weather channel’s more localised projections also address something of a gap in Irish forecasting that has become more apparent in recent years.

In October, 2023, Storm Babet caused widespread damage in East Cork. However, the entire county was under a status-orange warning.

Many people in towns like Midleton felt that a red warning, rather than the orange that was issued, would have allowed them to be more prepared and avoid some of the damage their homes and businesses incurred.

Cathal said: “One of the difficulties and challenges in weather forecasting is that conditions change so much from village to village and town to town, in terms of severity.

“We’ve advocated as far back as 2013 for changes to the current system. A county-by-county system is usually fine in the smaller counties, like Louth and Longford, but a county as big and as geographically diverse as Cork can see significant differences.

“A storm worthy of a red warning in one part of the county could only be a yellow in another, and that was a big criticism we heard around Storm Babet.

“The Midleton area was exposed to conditions worthy of a status-red warning, but is some places the conditions were only yellow warning level, and there are economic losses associated with a red warning, which would have shut the whole county down.

“We would advocate for a change in that system, where somewhere the size of Cork should have four or five different areas to represent the disparity there can be.”

As well as the size, the amount of coastline in Cork makes a difference, he said, explaining: “Wind speeds are always that bit more extreme in coastal areas.

“We’ve seen, repeatedly, over the years that West Cork would see the strongest winds. It can be 120km/h in Schull or Bantry compared to 70km/h in somewhere like Mitchelstown, just inside the county border.”

Extreme weather

Cathal also explained why it seems extreme weather events are happening increasingly often in Cork.

“Cork is close to the sea, so it’s at the whim of the Atlantic, and the ocean temperature in the Atlantic has increased overall, which means the cloud systems carry more precipitation.

“This has led to a significant increase in the frequency of flooding, especially flash flooding, where there are heavy, intense downpours that cause sudden flooding.

“Typically, Cork would have seen more slow rise flooding with the River Lee and other rivers having a major impact.”

He continued: “We’re not seeing an increase in the number of storms, but the storms we do see are a little more powerful. Infrastructurally, Ireland is caught at a crossroad. We’re focused on limiting our emissions, which is important, but we also need to focus on mitigating against the likely impacts.

“Because of the frequency of tidal flooding, Cork city, in particular, is ground zero. We have to look at our response towards what is a changing climate.”

Business development

The weather channel bases its forecast on various models, including European, UK, American and Irish ones, which they check four times a day for an operational forecast.

“We get an overarching view of the pressure, rainfall, wind speed, sunshine hours, temperature, solar radiation — they would have the biggest impact on the conditions on the ground,” Cathal said.

“Beyond that, what we try to do, in times of severe weather, particularly, is look back. I’ve always had a great love of history and by looking back at previous weather over the years, we can get an understanding of what’s likely to happen in certain situations at a very local level.”

The business got good news recently, with a private investor set to come on board.

“We’re thankful to confirm a significant investment, so we can set up a professional weather studio and produce graphics to the same extent you would see from other, larger weather channels.

“We’re going to branch out and begin offering private forecasting services for several sectors, like construction and farming, where meteorology is so important, for individual businesses and event forecasts for things like weddings, holidays, events, concerts, film shoots.

“We also want to bring the weather to people directly and understand it a bit more ourselves by documenting and recording live broadcasts on site of severe weather.

“So, we’ll be coming to a town near you, though if you see us around your town, it’s generally going to be bad news weather-wise.”

Ireland’s Weather Channel is planning to launch its new services from June, and, after three months, people will have the option of paying a small subscription fee for things like personal updates.

“The services currently in existence will improve and remain free of charge and open to the public,” Cathal said.