Analysis: November could be the month that we go to the polls for general election

There’s an election around the corner. Of course, in a stable parliamentary democracy such as ours, there’s sooner or later always an election around the corner, so the trick is to know which corner.

The next general election absolutely has to happen by March of 2025, but very few people who know anything about politics seem to think we’ll be kept waiting that long. 

The smart money seems to be on an early November run to the country, and the recent decision by new Finance Minister Jack Chambers to bring the budget forward by a week to October 1 has only added to speculation. That would in theory allow (just about) enough time to pass the Finance Bill and social welfare legislation after the budget and still have a three-week window for an early November election.

Also, a March election seems unlikely, if only because few would imagine Taoiseach Simon Harris relishing a week off the election trail to slip over to Washington with a bowl of shamrock for President Harris. Or for President Trump, God help us.

As it happens, there has been some speculation around Kildare Street that the prospect of President Trump winning re-election on November 5 may well be a consideration in the picking of a date for our general election, the thinking being that if the Very Stable Genius is returned to the White House, Irish voters might feel less inclined to be adventurous in their choice of TDs for the next Dáil.

The weather should be relatively benign in the mid-autumn, likely better than in mid-spring anyway, and the political climate too should be better than it will be on the far side of our annual Christmas homelessness spike and our traditional HSE winter trolley crisis.

Analysis: Extra Cork seats add intrigue to next general election https://t.co/U7YqPCHVGz

— EchoLive.ie (@echolivecork) August 17, 2024

Our new-ish Taoiseach may still be enjoying his political honeymoon in the autumn and will probably want to cash in any remaining goodwill before the Harris hop wears off completely.

Since June’s local elections, the bloom seems to be – temporarily at least – off of Sinn Féin’s electoral prospects, and nobody in the coalition will be anxious to give them too much time to recover.

It has been interesting to watch Simon Harris’s Dáil interactions with Mary Lou McDonald these past four months. 

Whereas relations between Leo Varadkar and Ms McDonald were always poisonous – and those between Micheál Martin and the opposition leader seldom much better – this Taoiseach seems to leave her completely flatfooted with his apparently genuine gratitude for her every pointed intervention. 

Mr Harris always thanks Ms McDonald politely and the Sinn Féin leader never seems to know how to respond. You'd suspect he can’t possibly mean it, but then, as George Burns said, “The key to success is sincerity. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.” 

 Speaking of sincerity, it’ll be interesting to see how politicians who swore blind to us there wouldn’t be an early election will explain why it will become absolutely necessary, once they get around the corner of a giveaway budget on October 1.

Expect to be bringing your driving licence with you on November 8 or 15.