Climate change pace may also be critically damaging, UCC researchers find 

Mathematicians at University College Cork (UCC) and the University of Exeter in England have determined that the rate at which Earth approaches critical levels of climate change could be as dangerous to our future as reaching these levels themselves.

A recent paper by the researchers has found that approaching critical levels at a rate of change that is too fast will create new rate-induced tipping points. A tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system.

Until now, critical levels have been assumed to be a point of no return, but the new study found that dangerous rates of change could trigger irreversible shifts in human and natural systems even before these critical levels are reached.

The new study also highlights the dangers associated with rate-induced tipping, which is triggered not by a critical level of change but instead by how quickly that level is approached.

For example, a slower or more gradual approach towards a critical level of climate change will allow humans, animals, and ecological systems more time to adapt and survive the outcomes once this level is reached, however, a disruptive rapid approach risks survival even before a critical level is reached.

This disruption to ecosystems will, in turn, create new challenges and new tipping points in socio-ecological networks through the so-called domino effect, according to the study.

Joint lead author, Dr Hassan Alkhayuon from the School of Mathematical Sciences at UCC, said: “The phenomenon of rate-induced tipping is not restricted to climate systems. Using mathematical modelling we observe similar effects in ecosystems and human-made systems.”

Professor Sebastian Wieczorek, also from the school, said that rate-induced tipping captures “a ubiquitous and potentially dangerous instability” and requires deeper understanding and recognition by climate policymakers.