Burnham's border poll comments: Bad phrasing or intentional?

James Cox

UK prime minister Andy Burnham has sparked huge debate by claiming a border poll is "off the table".

During his first visit to Northern Ireland in office, Burnham said: "I will take a collaborative approach but some issues will be off the table, and that is one issue that will be off the table."

The reaction has been widely negative, while some claimed it was a matter of bad phrasing.

Northern Ireland secretary Chris Bryan subsequently insisted Burnham had not made a mistake, but did try to clarify the comments somewhat.

He told UTV: "I sat next to Andy throughout all the conversations yesterday, and he made absolutely clear, time and time again, and I’m happy to do it again now, that we stand full square behind every single part of the Good Friday Agreement, including the provisions in relation to a border poll."

He added: "He was asked specifically about whether he was going to be discussing a border poll, holding a border poll now, and he was saying that we’re taking that off the table today.

"It was simply about the conversations yesterday.

"I’ve spoken to the First Minister and to other political leaders today to make it absolutely clear, I and Andy are fully committed to the Good Friday Agreement with all its provisions, including in relation to a border poll."

Can Burnham really take a border poll 'off the table'?

The short answer is no.

He can certainly delay it during his time in office, but Burnham, or any prime minister, cannot simply remove the possibility of a border poll.

He may have been suggesting that it was not an imminent possibility, as Bryant suggested.

Polls have suggested there would not be a majority for a border poll in the North yet, while more foundational work would be needed on complex issues such as governing, healthcare and national identity.

Reaction

Unsurprisingly, the strongest reaction has been from Sinn Féin.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said she told Burnham he cannot "bury his head in the sand" when it comes to Irish unity.

She said: "We have made very clear that the process of political change is under way in Ireland now, that the direction of travel is unmissable, and that there is absolutely a need for responsible, managed preparation for these referendums, so that we ensure that we do not have a repeat of the chaos that we saw in the course of the Brexit process.

“We have had a very direct exchange with him on these matters.

“He reiterated for us his full commitment to the Good Friday Agreement.”

Speaking at an event in Ballina, Co Mayo on Sunday, the North's First Minister Michelle O'Neill accused Taoiseach Micheál Martin of avoiding conversations on a border poll.

Fianna Fáil Minister of State Niamh Symth said she "categorically and fundamentally" disagrees with Burnham's comments.

"As a border TD I would have to categorically and fundamentally disagree with the prime minister on that notion that a border poll is ‘off the table’.

“I think the Taoiseach’s approach to this has been very sincere. With the establishment of the Shared Island (Initiative) which, in my view, is doing it the correct way, there is investment to be made in the North consistently on very important capital projects.

“Doing it through education, through infrastructure like the Narrow Water Bridge, and bringing people together in a very organic collaborative way, that people learn to be in the same room, to work together and find consensus on projects that benefits citizens in the North and working with us in the Republic."

In an interview with The Guardian, former British prime minister Gordon Brown said it is inevitable that Ireland will become united at some point in the future.

Brown was Tony Blair’s chancellor when the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998.

What does the Good Friday Agreement say about a border poll?

Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the North's secretary of state can decide to hold a border poll. More importantly, it states that the office holder is obliged to call a border poll if it appears likely a majority would vote for Irish unification.