Ireland set to surpass Luxembourg and become richest country in Europe by 2030, IMF says
Darragh Mc Donagh
Ireland is set to displace Luxembourg and become the richest country in Europe by 2030, according to the latest economic projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The rankings in the IMF World Economic Outlook are based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita with purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for price differences between countries.
They predict that Ireland will become the richest country in Europe in the next four years, with a GDP per capita PPP of around €168,000 compared to Luxembourg’s €154,000.
They are followed by Norway, Switzerland, and Denmark in the table. Of Europe’s five largest economies, Germany ranks highest in 12th place, with France in 15th, and the United Kingdom in 16th.
There will be a substantial gap between the top five countries and the rest of Europe, according to the forecast. Germany’s GDP per capita PPP is expected to hit €79,000, while the UK’s is predicted to reach €66,000.
Ireland’s GDP is distorted by the presence of large multinational companies, and some economists argue that Gross National Income (GNI) would be a better gauge of the country’s actual economic output.
Ireland would not feature in the top four countries in Europe by this metric, based on World Bank figures for 2024.
In separate rankings based on GDP in nominal terms without taking PPP into account, Luxembourg will still be the wealthiest country in Europe in 2030 with around €152,400 per capita compared to €137,800 in Ireland.
Other countries expected to do well in the coming years include the Netherlands and Malta, which are ranked sixth and seventh, respectively. Italy is forecast to be in 18th place, with Spain in 22nd.
The nations towards the bottom of the table include several EU candidate states. The poorest three countries are expected to be Ukraine, Kosovo, and Moldova.
The IMF has predicted real GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in Ireland this year. Its long-term projections are based on current growth trajectories and corporate investment patterns.
