Latest poll points to commanding Connolly victory in presidential race

By Jonathan McCambridge and David Young, PA

Independent candidate Catherine Connolly is set for a commanding victory in the presidential election, according to the latest opinion poll.

The Business Post/Red C poll puts the left-wing TD 19 percentage points ahead of Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys in the race to succeed Michael D Higgins as head of state.

The latest snapshot of voter intentions has Ms Connolly on 44 per cent of first-preference votes and Ms Humphreys on 25 per cent.

Published at the close of the penultimate day of campaigning ahead of Friday’s vote, it is the latest in a series of polls that point to a significant lead for Ms Connolly.

Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin, who pulled out of the presidential race several weeks ago but whose name remains on the ballot paper, is on 10 per cent in the poll.

The results were revealed as Ms Connolly and Ms Humphreys continued with their respective drives to convince undecided voters. Voters who have yet to make up their minds still account for 21 per cent of the electorate, according to the poll.

Speaking at a rally in Monaghan town earlier on Wednesday, Ms Connolly denied that she was taking victory as a given, insisting she was taking “nothing for granted”.

Ms Humphreys, who spent the day canvassing in counties Cork and Clare, expressed confidence that she can win the presidency and made a plea for Fianna Fáil supporters to “lend me their vote” as the centre-ground candidate.

I think we had three hours’ sleep last night. I am not complaining, I am simply explaining that that is the nature of the campaign

In another development in the race, Ms Connolly also lodged a formal complaint with Ireland’s Electoral Commission over a “malicious deepfake video”, which appeared online on Tuesday and incorrectly announced she had withdrawn from the presidential race.

The two rival candidates for the presidency faced off during the final TV debate of the campaign on RTÉ's Prime Time programme on Tuesday evening.

On Wednesday, Ms Connolly launched her Future Voices initiative during the rally in Monaghan.

She was asked about comments during the RTÉ debate when she said “when” rather than “if” she wins Friday’s vote.

“I am absolutely not taking it for granted, absolutely not,” she responded.

“It will be an absolute privilege if the people of Ireland elect me when they cast their vote on Friday.

“I am taking nothing for granted. I am canvassing the rest of the day and tomorrow.

“I think we had three hours’ sleep last night. I am not complaining, I am simply explaining that that is the nature of the campaign.”

Ms Connolly said if she does win the race for the Áras, it sends a strong message to the government.

She said: “I hope it sends a very positive message that they should reflect on the way they have approached this campaign.

“Also, there is a gap between what the Government are seeing and what people are seeing on the ground.

“You can see it everywhere we go, that people are crying out for honesty, integrity and for a different vision for the country and for a solution to our problems.”

Ms Connolly has received support in her campaign from Sinn Féin as well as a number of smaller parties.

Sinn Féin vice president and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, Michelle O’Neill, was in Monaghan to support the candidate.

Ms O’Neill said Ms Connolly’s campaign had given people hope.

She added: “I think what we are saying over the course of this campaign marks a change in Irish politics.

“It very much marks a new beginning and that is something that we all want to see.”

It’s a two-horse race, and I’m asking people in the centre ground to please come out and vote

Speaking in Cork, Ms Humphreys said there were a “lot of people who haven’t made their mind up” how to vote on Friday.

She said: “I would say to people, please come out and vote on Friday, and I’m saying very clearly to them that I’m a centre-ground, pro-European, pro-business, common-sense person, and I will bring all of those skills and all of the experience I’ve gained throughout my life… to the office of the presidency.

“I really am asking people to put their trust in me, because I certainly won’t let them down on the international stage, whether it’s representing this country, both diplomatically, culturally, or opening doors for Irish businesses.”

Ms Humphreys replied, “I sure do” when asked if she still believed she could win the race for the presidency.

She said: “It’s a two-horse race, and I’m asking people in the centre ground to please come out and vote.

“I’m glad I’m in Cork here too, because the Taoiseach (Cork TD Micheál Martin) of the country has said he’s going to vote for me.

“Many prominent Fianna Fáil TDs and ministers have said they’re going to support me, they’re going to vote for me.

“So I’m asking those Fianna Fáil supporters to please come out and lend me their vote.

“For those people that want to vote number one for Jim Gavin, and I understand that, please give me the two.”

She added, “There’s a broad range of support there.

“The most important thing is that people come out on Friday and exercise their vote.”

Later on Wednesday, while campaigning in Ennis, Co Clare, Ms Humphreys declared: “The game’s not over.”