Connolly has near double the support of Heather Humphreys, poll shows

Kenneth Fox

Catherine Connolly holds a commanding lead in the presidential election with just over a week to go before votes are cast, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll.

The poll finds that Ms Connolly, on 38 per cent, has almost double the support of her nearest rival, Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, on 20 per cent. Support for the Fianna Fáil candidate, Jim Gavin, who suspended his presidential campaign last week but remains on the ballot, stands at just 5 per cent.

While the number of “don’t knows” remains relatively high, at 18 per cent, the poll suggests that if the election were held immediately, Ms Connolly would win on the first count.

The findings of the poll are as follows: Catherine Connolly, 38 per cent; Heather Humphreys, 20 per cent; Jim Gavin, 5 per cent; will not vote, 12 per cent; will spoil vote, 6 per cent; undecided, 18 per cent.

When those who said they don’t know, or who will not vote or who said they intend to spoil their vote are excluded, the numbers are as follows: Catherine Connolly, 60 per cent; Heather Humphreys, 32 per cent; Jim Gavin, 8 per cent.

Ms Humphreys has not benefited as well from the halt to Mr Gavin’s campaign as Fine Gael might have hoped.

Asked where their second preferences will go, Mr Gavin’s voters split roughly evenly between Ms Connolly and Ms Humphreys. Among Mr Gavin’s voters before he ceased his campaign, Ms Humphreys fares slightly better, but not well enough to alter the balance of the race.

When voters were asked who they intended to vote for before Mr Gavin’s withdrawal, 35 per cent went for Ms Connolly, 17 per cent for Ms Humphreys, and 11 per cent for Mr Gavin.

The poll also contains evidence of voter disillusionment with the slate of candidates offered to them. Almost half of voters (49 per cent) said they “don’t feel represented by any of the candidates”; 40 per cent disagreed.

More than half (55 per cent) said the Constitution should be changed to make it easier to run for the presidency, with just over a third (34 per cent) disagreeing.

A clear majority of voters who expressed a view on the issue said conservative campaigner Maria Steen – who tried and failed narrowly to secure entry to the race through nominations by Oireachtas members – should have been in the contest. Asked if she should have been facilitated, 45 per cent agreed, 24 per cent disagreed, and 31 per cent had no opinion.