Do group winners carry form into hurling quarter-finals?
Cormac Beausang of Midleton claims possession despite the presence of Glen Rovers pair Conor McCarthy and Micheál Mullins in last year's Co-op SuperStores Premier SHC quarter-final at Páirc Uí Rinn. Midleton had finished first in their group and won to advance to the semi-finals. Picture: Jim Coughlan
The seedings following last Sunday’s culmination of the group stage of the McCarthy Insurance Group Premier SFC brought something of a curiosity.
Carrigaline were number 1, of course, as the only side with three wins from three, which sent them straight through to the semi-finals. Next were Clonakilty, who topped their group unbeaten with five points, while Nemo Rangers were third, having bested Newcestown and Valley Rovers are all three had finished on four points.
Then, the fourth seeds were Castlehaven – who had garnered five points, one more than Nemo. The champions of 2023 and 2024 were in the same group as Clon, with the west Cork sides drawing with each other and both beating Knocknagree and Ballincollig.
In real terms, it didn’t actually matter as St Finbarr’s, runners-up in Carrigaline’s group, only had two points and so were the sixth seeds, meaning a quarter-final tie with Carbery, who emerged from the divisions/colleges section, with the other two quarter-finals thereby having to be a mix of Clon and Haven on one side and Nemo and Newcestown on the other.
Of course, premier senior differs from the other four grades in that only one team gets an automatic semi-final spot as the entry of the successful division or colleges makes for three quarter-finals.
That means that there are two group winners involved at that stage each year whereas, from senior A down to premier junior, two table-toppers get their direct ticket to the last four, with the remaining first-placed side taking on a runner-up.
With six editions of the championship completed since the change, it means we have 36 examples of hurling group winners’ results in quarter-finals to examine.
For example, in both senior A and intermediate A, there are perfect six-from-six records for group winners against runners-up – at premier senior, the overall figure is eight from 12 but four from four in the past two seasons.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, premier intermediate – that most even of grades – has the lowest conversion rate, with group winners losing as many quarter-finals as they have won, while in premier junior (or lower intermediate, as it was known in 2020 and 2021) it is four from six.
Aggregated, 27 of the 36 applicable sides have won, which equates to a 75 percent success rate.
That won’t necessarily tell us how this weekend’s games will know, but the relatively large sample size means that it would be a surprise if there was a major deviation from those figures.
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