Cork hurling: What the numbers say about relying on one forward

In hurling, the reliance on any one player in any area is viewed as a problem that needs addressing. After all, if your marquee hurler goes down, how are you going to win a championship?

Two teams to suffer that crushing blow before championship was thrown in this year were Castlemartyr and Carrigtwohill, who lost Ciarán Joyce and Seán Walsh respectively. Immediately, it was assumed that both teams will struggle; naturally enough given the calibre of players they would much rather have available. But is that a knee-jerk reaction?

Both teams have proved that they have the players to fill the space. The two clubs ended up with differing fates by the end of the group stages: Castlemartyr went out at the hands of rivals Dungourney, while Carrig crept through with a draw against Ballinhassig.

And that was after losing another key starter in Justin Oke.

The primitivity of stats available to the public in club hurling means we can’t accurately measure what Castlemartyr lost with Joyce’s absence as a defender. Though one can certainly make an educated guess and call it significant.

With Carrigtwohill – and Walsh being a forward – we can measure it to some degree.

As the east Cork club preserved their top-flight status in the league once again, Walsh ended the campaign with 5-78 overall (4-41 from play) which accounted for 40% of Carrigtwohill’s total scoring. Without that input in this year’s championship, their leading light up top has been James Mulcahy, the forward accounting for 30% of their scores.

Carrigtwohill's adaptation then gives us the wider question: across the 24 teams in Premier Senior and Senior A, how heavily do clubs lean on their leading man? And does it decide anything?

Sarsfields winning the Premier Senior crown last year with only 27% of their overall scoring coming from leader Colm McCarthy makes the claim that spread is better.

Carrig themselves back it up to a certain extent. They qualified without Walsh – despite being so reliant on him during the league – and interestingly, they’ve used the joint fewest players in the SAHC; tied with Blarney on 18.

The teams in the top two grades that have found themselves in trouble are those that have been dependent on their marquee forward. Douglas (Shane Kingston, 55%) and Fermoy (Fionn Lardner, 50%) are the only two teams to have over 50% of their scoring from one man across the top two tiers, and both are now one defeat away from demotion.

The four relegation playoff sides average 44.5% reliance on one man, compared to roughly 32% from the teams that have reached the knockout phase. The eliminated teams in between average around 36% on reliance.

Fr O’Neill’s are the side most pulling the relegation playoff average down; Declan Dalton accounts for 35% of their scores, while Patrick Daly has nailed 38% of Ballyhea’s total.

But high reliance is not necessarily detrimental. Brian O’Sullivan has managed 43% of Kanturk’s scoring, and they’re flying. The same is true for Blarney (Shane Barrett, 38%) and Erin’s Own (Conor Lenihan, 41%), who both advanced straight to the SAHC semis.

Heavy reliance can be compatible with winning (it’s likely a Seán Walsh-led Carrigtwohill would apply here) but the teams in relegation trouble are most reliant on one.

By contrast, take the five teams under 30% reliance: Sarsfields (Daniel Hogan, 23%), Watergrasshill (Adam Murphy, 28%), Glen Rovers (Patrick Horgan, 29%), Ballinhassig (Ger Collins, 29%) and Bride Rovers (Cormac Barry, 21%). All but Bride Rovers have secured knockout placings.

And even the Rathcormac/Bartlemy side were very close to doing so.