Ireland should beat a poor, struggling Wales side comfortably

Ireland and Wales have had some right Six Nations battles in the past quarter of a century, but tonight’s clash at the Aviva Stadium is unlikely to be one of them.

Wales have lost their last 13 Six Nations fixtures, with their last victory being the 17-29 win over Italy in Rome all of three years ago. 

They have fallen off a cliff since the end of the World Cup in France in 2023, as they have lost 23 of their 25 Tests since, with them only managing to beat Japan during that awful run.

Any memories of the great rivalry between Ireland and Wales, that got quite spicy at times, is merely an echo now.

The bookmakers reckon Ireland will win by 26 points, such is the extent of how far Wales have fallen, and there is little to suggest they will be proven wrong.

Steve Tandy’s side lost by 48-7 to England on the opening weekend of the championship, and that form guide looks even worse now given how badly England have been since. 

Round 2 saw Wales lose 12-54 to France, but Round 3 saw a huge improvement as they lost by just 23-26 to Scotland. In truth, Wales should have won that game. 

They were 15 points ahead after Sam Costelow had split the posts with an early second-half penalty. 

Scotland were struggling but Wales shot themselves in the foot, after a successful Jarrod Evans penalty, when a Finn Russell kick off was allowed bounce, with Welsh flanker James Botham not even facing the ball, and Darcy Graham gleefully collected to walk in the simplest of tries. 

That moment essentially cost Wales the game and it was indicative of where they are now. 

NADIR

They are in the doldrums, and even when they get themselves into winning positions they manage to find a way to lose.

Ireland will have been forewarned by the Welsh display a fortnight ago so should not be caught on the hop. 

You would also expect Andy Farrell’s side to still be on a high from their dismantling of England at Twickenham a fortnight ago. 

Steve Borthwick’s side were abysmal on the day, but that should not detract from just how good an Irish performance that was. 

It is also easy to forget just how much doom and gloom there was around the Ireland team going into that Round 3 tie. 

One huge win later and that has been largely forgotten.

The big change for the England game was the abandonment of the Sam Prendergast experiment at outhalf. 

It just was not working and was hurting the team and the player himself. 

Prendergast got taken out of the firing line for his own good and hopefully he can come back at some stage after working on the deficiencies in his game, but with Jack Crowley (below) restored as the Irish no. 10 the team instantly looked more energised and much slicker.

It helped Crowley that scrum half Jamison Gibson-Park was right back to his best form, and outside him Stuart McCloskey showed the type of form that made us wonder whether he should have been so far down the centre pecking order for the past few years. 

Marcus Smith is destined to have recurring nightmares at the memory of being hunted down by the big Ulster man.

On the day everything seemed to work well for Ireland and it is difficult to see where Wales can hurt them. They are likely to target the Irish scrum, just like everyone else does, but the Welsh front row probably lacks the power to derive any notable dividends.

Ireland must be careful with their kicking game as they do not want to kick loosely to Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams as those two have the gas and guile to cause damage if given time and space.

The likelihood is that Wales will not break their terrible losing sequence this weekend. 

Most Irish rugby supporters will undoubtedly have sympathy for the plight of Welsh rugby at present. 

Yet there can be no mercy on Friday night, as Ireland need all five points on offer, and as big a points total as possible, to keep themselves in the mix in the championship.