Iran war 'one of the biggest American strategic failures in history', says Cork military expert

A Cork expert on American military history feels that the war between the US/Israel and Iran is turning into “one of the biggest American strategic failures in history.”

David Fitzgerald, a senior lecturer in the school of history at University College Cork (UCC), has conducted extensive research on US military intervention and counter insurgency.

Mr Fitzgerald told The Echo that he feels that the lack of planning from a American military perspective has been evidence since the war began on February 28.

“I really think that there is a huge disconnect between tactics, which is the amount of bombs dropped and targets hit, and strategic results.

“Looking at American performance, like in one sense, it’s not too surprising because bombing campaigns rarely work on their own.

“But it’s kind of shocking to the extent to which that they’ve not achieved any of their objectives, beyond degrading the Iranian ballistic missile programme.”

Mr Fitzgerald added: “I think the ability of the US to hit Iranian targets was never in doubt, that they can drop bombs infinitely.

“But their inability to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, in particular the fact that they’ve sort of agreed that Iran control the Strait of Hormuz from now on is a massive setback for American interests.

“I think the Americans really didn’t expect this to go on this long. I think that’s very clear.”

Ceasefire

As to how things will play out from here in the Middle East, Mr Fitzgerald added that US President Donald Trump would ideally love a ceasefire to hold.

But he believes that the tensions between Iran and Israel could prove a sticking point.

“I think the Israelis very obviously are far less interested in ceasefire than Trump, and that’s why they continue to bomb Lebanon.

“So I think it’s very unlikely that Iran and Israel will stop hitting each other anytime soon.

“I’m less clear what the Americans will do. I think if Trump can get some sort of symbolic concession from the Iranians that he can then take as a victory, I think he would be happy to walk away for now.

“But I don’t think it’ll be a stable situation. I don’t think it’ll end soon in that sense. Even if the Americans walk away and then it’s a couple of days and the ceasefire holds.

“I think they’ll be dragged back in sooner than later because Iran isn’t done and Israel is not done. And that’s the problem.”