General Election analysis: How will the Cork contingent fare for the big government jobs?

After the 2020 election, Cork South Central was in an unprecedented position of power, with a fifth of the new senior minister team living on the south side of the Lee.

As Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin was given the first go in the big chair and became Taoiseach for two-and-a-half years, before swapping for the Tánaiste role and the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Simon Coveney, then deputy leader of Fine Gael, had to hand over the title of Tánaiste to his party leader, Leo Varadkar, but retained his post in Foreign Affairs. A reshuffle upon the Taoiseach swap in 2022 saw him move to Enterprise, Trade and Employment, before retiring earlier this year.

Despite the concentration in one constituency, there was no question that Fianna Fáil heavy hitter Michael Grath would be left without a senior appointment. He took on the role of Public Expenditure Minister for the first half the term, swapping roles with Paschal Donohoe in 2022 to become Finance Minister, before leaving for the European Commission earlier this year.

Then Senator, now TD again, Jerry Buttimer earned the role of Leas-Cathaoirleach in the Seanad. The appointment was short-lived as he resigned in the wake of the Golfgate scandal, but he was brought back into fold and elevated to the Cathaoirleach post in 2022.

With greedy Cork South Central hoarding roles last time, there was little love for the rest of the county, but that might change this time out.

In a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition, Mr Martin will be the only certain member of cabinet, but members of both parties will be in the hunt.

However, in either party there are no unsafe seats or people who brought in a new running mate, the type of thing that allows you to jump the queue to the top table.

Mr Martin always pays attention to nurturing emerging talent: see Jack Chambers for proof. Of Cork’s newer Fianna Fáil TDs, Padraig O’Sullivan may have the advantage, having won an important bye-election in 2019 and topping the poll on the northside this time out.

Meanwhile, Cork North West has been without a minister since Michael Creed in 2020, and the two rival Moynihans comfortably did a three-peat on the same ticket despite a much more challenging constituency after a redrawing.

The lack of incumbency for Fine Gael TDs will hurt their chances, with only Colm Burke defending a seat in this election and being able to make a case based on continuity. Mr Buttimer might have been out of the Dáil for eight years, but maintained a high profile and could also make a push.In a small party, it’s all hands on deck, so Holly Cairns will be eager to find the best ways of using Pádraig Rice and Liam Quaide, whether the party goes into government or opposition. It will be a similar story for Eoghan Kenny in Labour.

With Independent Ireland potentially playing a role in the next government, where Michael Collins and Kenneth O’Flynn could also have an outsized influence.

With Sinn Féin likely to stay in opposition, Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire will be looking to remain on the front bench where he has been an able performer, while Thomas Gould and Pat Buckley will also make a push.