General Election 2024: Big two in Cork North West will hope that the status quo stays

Stretching from the border with Limerick to the Bandon river and from the county bounds to the edge of Ballincollig, Cork North West is a sprawling constituency which has been dominated by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael since its inception and in which farming, housing, the cost and availability of childcare and incumbency could be the deciding factors.

Currently the three-seater is represented by two Fianna Fáil TDs, Aindrias Moynihan, who’s based in the Múscraí Gaeltacht to the south of the constituency; Duhallow TD, Michael Moynihan, and Michael Creed in Macroom.

The former agriculture minister announced his decision to step back from politics last year, one of 18 incumbent FG TDs to opt for retirement, and is being replaced on the Fine Gael ticket by his cousin, also named councillor Michael Creed. Mr Creed was the first of three from his party to secure re-election in the Macroom Municipal District, which puts him in a strong position going into the eeneral election.

Since its inception in 1981, Cork North West has never returned a TD from a party other than the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael duopoly. The advantage has been to Fianna Fáil since 2016, when Aindrias Moynihan made his breakthrough, following in the footsteps of his father, the late Donal Moynihan.

The Creed name is a strong card to carry in this election and it won’t do any harm to the councillor that he has the same Christian name as his cousin, the TD and former minister.

“Whether the status quo will stay or not, I don’t know but aim is to try and win a second seat for Fine Gael and I’m doing everything in my power to do that. That’s all I can do and the people will decide at the end of the day and I will accept their decision,” he told The Echo.

His running mate John Paul O’Shea, who is based in Kanturk, had a strong performance in June also and was unlucky to miss out in 2020.

The issues Michael Creed has been encountering on the doorsteps have included farming, housing and its dependence on the availability of waste water treatment capacity and the cost and availability of childcare.

In a constituency which is largely rural, Mr Creed believes that ‘farming has become a part-time job’ for people rather than a full time livelihood, such are the vagaries of the market and how rules and regulations change, such as the strong possibility that farmers will lose their nitrates derogation in the next Government term.

“What they really want to do is make it stay where it’s at 220 – that is the big issue with the farming community – the price of cattle has improved and they will all acknowledge that now but the suckler and the beef farmer, they’re not really making a living out of farming any more and they all have to have part-time jobs to survive,” he said.

“If you’ve a good Minister for Agriculture, the most important thing is that they fight the case for farmers at European level and make a strong case – agriculture is the backbone of the Irish community.

“Farmers have given a lot of time and effort and put a lot of money back into the economy – when farming is going well, the economy is going well because when he makes money, he spends it locally.” Other issues to feature on the doorsteps include, inevitably, the cost of living and the housing crisis.

Macroom is now firmly the hub of the constituency.

The N22 bypass has helped and a factor has also been the loss of Ballincollig to Cork North Central as a result of last year’s redrawing of constituency boundaries.

The N22 bypass of Macroom and Baile Mhúirne has made those two communities a focus of house building with numerous developments ongoing and in the planning. There’s a particular demand in Macroom, for instance, for one and two bedroom apartments but, despite protestations to the contrary by local councillors, very little progress has been made in the bid to have the 20 empty since 2005 apartments above Dunnes Stores occupied by tenants.

Another source of frustration is Uisce Éireann and the slow pace of developing waste water treatment plants, a prerequisite for housing expansion, in communities such as Béal Átha’n Ghaorthaidh and Crossbarry.

Aindrias Moynihan said that he hoped a review to be carried out by Uisce Éireann of the list of communities to get these waste water treatment plants would see the Gaeltacht community of Béál Átha’n Ghaorthaidh included in a schedule.

At present the village, with up to 90 houses, is dependent on a septic tank built in the 1930s to cater for 10 houses and this has led to the back gardens of many properties being flooded by sewage on a number of occasions since the last election.

“In places such as Coachford and Baile Mhúirne, where waste water treatments plants were built, housing is progressing and it’s clear that Uisce Éireann are wronging the people of Béal Átha’n Ghaorthaidh that they haven’t upgraded that sewage system already,” he told The Echo.

He also complained about the utility’s failure to effectively communicate with communities impacted by the slow delivery of services, such as Béal Átha and Macroom, in relation to the ongoing boil water notice, the fifth in a period of three years in that town.

As well as housing, the TD is also focusing on upgrading the stretch of the N22 between Macroom and Ballincollig to make it safer and the cost of living. “There’s a need to improve the bus service also,” he said.

Taking historic precedent and the advantage of incumbency into account, the real battle in Cork North West looks like it will be fought between the two main Government parties with Fine Gael hoping to trump Fianna Fáil for the first time since 2011.

The loss of Ballincollig to Cork North Central is a source of concern for Aindrias Moynihan. “The canvass is busy – a great deal to cram in and limited time to do it – we’re happy enough we’re making progress but it will be tight due to Ballincollig being gone,” he said.

Very much a beneficiary of the boundary changes was Michael Moynihan of Fianna Fáil who is located in the northern side of the constituency which has seen communities such as Ballyclogh, Buttevant and Doneraile added, additions which could benefit him.

The likeliest challengers to break the stranglehold of the two main parties, an all male hegemony as it happens, comes from two female candidates. Sinn Féin’s Nicole Ryan, who has replaced the former MEP and presidential candidate, Liadh Ní Riada, on that party’s ticket, and Becky Kealy of Aontú who secured almost 4,000 votes in the 2020 election and was just 62 high preferences short of a seat in the council elections in June. She fell just short of clinching the last seat in the Kanturk Municipal District from Ian Doyle of Fianna Fáil.

The Sinn Féin candidate received a boost to her fledgling campaign last week when the party leader, Mary Lou McDonald, came to Millstreet, Ms Ryan’s hometown, to meet and greet and met with a warm reception from the places she visited – including a local national school and day care centre, where she met with journalist and disability campaigner, Joanne O’Riordan.

During that visit, the leader and the candidate expressed confidence that a breakthrough could be made in Cork North West.

Asked if she was ready for the challenge, Ms Ryan responded: “Yeah, I think I was born ready.” Her focus was on the impact of the housing crisis was having on young people, forcing them to emigrate to seek opportunities to earn a living and live their lives in some degree of comfort, albeit away from their home.

“People are constantly looking for houses, looking for places to rent, but there’s nothing here for people who want to rent – and you also have a very big lack of social housing,” she said.

“We also have quite a lot of derelict properties around Cork North West and Cork county but there’s a massive challenge with dereliction and derelict properties and getting access – first of all you need money because you’re not going to get a grant unless you spend the money first and there’s a lot of red tape,” she said, adding that fixing up a derelict property to make it livable might be the same difference as buying a house.

Becky Kealy of Aontú’s performance in the 2020 General Election and the June local elections means she is brimming with confidence that there may yet be a November surprise in Cork North West.

“I did pretty well in 2020 when I got nearly 4,000 first preferences and that’s when our base level of support across the country was 2%. Now after the referendums we were at 4% and then at 5% and there was a recent one which had us at 7% - I know you can’t totally rely on all of them but the trend is looking good – you could say our base level of support has tripled and I think that will stand to me,” she said. “I’ve been getting a great response on the canvass – and also for the locals, at least 80% of the area was rural.”

“Of all the non Government parties, I would have the best chance this time around,” she said.

She pointed to her own origins, a strong Fianna Fáil family, and said that while she felt abandoned by the party several years ago, the last Government term had left more Fianna Fáil people questioning their loyalty, due to the harsh economic impact of the cost of living and depressed income for farmers.

Sinn Féin didn’t stand in 2020 and they may regret that this time around as it may have been their best chance of a breakthrough as they had the wind at their backs four years ago.

Colette Finn of the Green Party also put in a respectable showing in 2020 but that was on the crest of a rising Green tide. She may feel the brunt of the anti-Government feeling this time around, as her party colleague, Harriet Burgess who stood in Macroom for the local elections, did this summer.

The Cork North West electorate are faced with a choice of returning what are likely to be three Government TDs, if they stick with the tradition since 1981, or, if they opt for change, it may be that Kanturk based Becky Kealy may have the advantage over Sinn Féin’s Nicole Ryan.