Analysis: Extra Cork seats add intrigue to next general election

It’s a sobering way to look at it, but the next general election may well be less than 100 days away.

If conventional wisdom proves correct, we could be looking at a giveaway budget on October 1, followed, if the coalition parties can figure out how to handwave away all of their assurances this Dáil would run its full term, by a quick gallop to the country sometime in early November.

With the Electoral Commission’s recommendations coming into effect, both Cork city constituencies will become five-seaters, so whether the next general election does happen in the autumn, or in the muckier, gloomier days of March, either way we’re in for some politically very interesting days ahead.

Cork South-Central will gain 12 voting districts, including Bishopstown, and after the election, the constituency will wake up the proud owner of five TDs, three of them likely brand new to the job.

Barring a truly seismic political shift between here and the election, it’s a safe bet that Micheál Martin will be re-elected to the seat he has held since 1989.

Local politicians say privately that the general consensus is he had an excellent run as Taoiseach and will almost certainly top the poll, probably on the first count.

When The Echo accompanied Mr Martin on a canvass for Fianna Fáil European candidate Billy Kelleher in Douglas the weekend before the June election, two things became very apparent. The first was that Mr Martin absolutely loves canvassing, not least because he’s very, very good at it. The second thing was that, even with the obvious caveat that the Fianna Fáil press office chose very carefully the location of the canvass, Mr Martin is clearly extremely popular. That might seem an obvious thing about a man about to enter his 40th year as an elected representative, but his popularity seems to be way more personal than party.

In the wake of Simon Coveney’s announcement in early July that he would not be seeking re-election next time out, The Echo rang Mr Martin for a comment, and — despite the fact that the two men have not always had the closest or the warmest of relationships — was given a very generous tribute.

“We were political opponents, and we represent two separate parties, two separate political traditions, but in Cork South-Central, there was always a tradition of crossing the aisle, if you like, or uniting to advocate in the best interests of Cork,” he said.

“I can remember the late Toddy O’Sullivan, Pearse Wyse and others, there was a tradition where you’d put party positions to one side to advocate for particular projects for Cork, whether it was investment in Cork Airport, or the Port of Cork, these were issues that we were always in a position to work together on.”

Given Mr Coveney’s announcement and given also that Leo Varadkar — who was both predecessor and successor to Mr Martin in the Taoiseach’s office — had recently stepped aside as Fine Gael leader (and would later announce his own, not unpredicted, intention not to stand again), The Echo asked the Tánaiste if he himself might be considering early retirement. Perhaps there was a fault on the line, but he didn’t seem to hear the question. When the question was repeated, Mr Martin replied, that of course he was running again and was very busy “getting ready for the election”. There was a pause before he added “whenever that is”.

Whenever that is, Fianna Fáil would seem assured of a second seat in Cork South-Central, with the departing Michael McGrath likely to be replaced by his brother Seamus, leader of the Fianna Fáil group in Cork County Council.

First elected to the council 17 years ago and re-elected in June’s local elections, receiving the highest number of first preferences of any local candidate in the country, getting 5,191 first preferences in the Carrigaline local electoral area, more than 3,000 above the quota of 2,057 votes.

Barrister and Cork City South-Central councillor Shane O’Callaghan would have to be seen as the frontrunner to replace Simon Coveney, although some Fine Gael sources claim Carrigaline county councillor Úna McCarthy might be in with a shout for the seat. Ms McCarthy, a capable and popular councillor, was controversially imposed on the ticket last month for what the party insisted were geographical reasons.

Few would bet against Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire to keep his seat, and the SF Social Protection spokesperson would have to be seen as a shoo-in for a Cabinet position in any government involving Sinn Féin. Party sources declined to be drawn on whether or who the party might select as his running mate.

UP FOR GRABS

With that fifth seat up for grabs, former Lord Mayor Mick Finn has announced he will run as an Independent, while the Labour Party has selected first-time councillor Laura Harmon, and the Social Democrats will run first-timer Pádraig Rice. Dr Monica Peres Oikeh will run for the Green Party in Cork South-Central.

Across the river, Cork North-Central has become a Frankenstein’s Monster of a constituency, lurching from its heart in the northside of the city and Glanmire out to Ballincollig in the west and Mallow in the north-east.

The expansion will bring an extra 30,000 votes into the constituency, with 22,000 of those in Ballincollig and 8,000 in Mallow.

Most politicians The Echo spoke with this week thought the next election would probably see at least three of the constituency’s sitting TDs returned.

Sinn Féin’s Thomas Gould, who is rarely off duty and is almost universally popular, would seem a certainty to top the poll, while Fianna Fáil’s Pádraig O’Sullivan and Fine Gael’s newly-minted Minister of State Colm Burke were thought assured of keeping their seats.

As on the southside, Sinn Féin sources were equally tight-lipped about the party’s election intentions regarding a running mate for Thomas Gould, conceding only that, rather than having a selection convention, “we’ll probably decide in-house”.

Few would think that Fine Gael has a chance at a second seat, although city councillor Garrett Kelleher has been tipped to run, but some in Fianna Fáil believe their party may have a shot.

Former Lord Mayor Colm Kelleher in Ballincollig and former First Citizen Tony Fitzgerald on the northside both believe they should be Pádraig O’Sullivan’s running mate, while there appears to be little enthusiasm from Mallow-based county councillor Gearoid Murphy in that role, with the thinking being that Mallow probably doesn’t have enough votes to deliver a seat. How all of that plays out at the FF convention later this month should be interesting.

The fourth seat in the now-five-seater would seem very likely to be heading toward Independent Ireland Cork City North West councillor Ken O’Flynn, re-elected in June with 3,134 votes against a 1,984 quota.

POLITICAL FIGHT FOR FINAL SEAT

The fun will likely be in the fifth seat. The consensus seems to be that sitting Solidarity TD Mick Barry will be in the political fight of his life to keep his seat, a position the veteran electoral scrapper may secretly relish.

Oliver Moran will run for the Greens, while Ciarán McCarthy will represent the Social Democrats.

John Maher looks likely to stand for the Labour Party.

A run by some further right candidates in the general election wouldn’t seem beyond the bounds of possibility. Ross Lahive of The Irish People polled 724 first preferences in Cork City North West in the local elections, only being narrowly pipped for the final seat when transfers from Mick Nugent of Sinn Féin helped Brian McCarthy of Solidarity across the line.

After the dust settled, there was some muttering from Sinn Féin that, had they run only two candidates, the attendant lack of transfers would probably have cost Mr McCarthy his seat. Obviously, we will never know.

Even if there are really only 100 days or fewer to the next election, that’s still plenty of time for more candidates to declare, and The Echo will cover all of the twists and turns between now and then.

Whenever that is.