Ireland urged to plan now as birth rates fall and population ages

Ellen O'Donoghue

The Government has been urged to act now to plan for a changing population.

A National Economic and Social Council (NESC) report has suggested that the country's population will peak in the next three decades.

It pointed out that 'peak baby' and peak child' milestones were reached in 2010 and 2024, respectively.

Policy Analyst with the NESC, Dr Gráinne Collins, told Newstalk that more comprehensive data is needed to plan for the future.

She described "very poor numbers on the movements of people in and out of Ireland," saying that they have to use people's presence in admin data sets, or their lack of presence when they emigrate.

"We don’t know, for instance, why women are not having as many babies as they say they want to," Dr Collins added.

The passing of 'peak child' and 'peak baby' has been described as a decisive shift in population from expansion to gradual ageing, and Dr Collins said that this will have an impact on society in the future.

"In time, it will affect the number of children in the workforce, which then in turn will affect how we support our society, because there’ll be less workers supporting more population, a more older population," Dr Collins said.

The report warned that Ireland risks having insufficient workers and tax revenues to support an ageing population, as fewer children are born in Ireland every year.

"The main issue is that we’ve passed peak baby; the most children were born in Ireland in 2010, and every year since then the number of children has been falling. We’ve now passed peak child, 2024, so that from now on there’s going to be 15,000 less children born each year in Ireland," Dr Collins said.

The NESC suggested that with strategic and adaptive approaches, Ireland can get ahead of the demographic changes and better prepare for the transitions that follow.