Demand for GP consultations to increase by 23 per cent by 2040
Eva Osborne
New research projects that the demand for general practitioner (GP) consultations will increase by at least 23 per cent by 2040, reflecting continued population growth.
The new report released by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) considers a range of scenarios based on varying assumptions about population growth and ageing, the pace of healthy ageing, and policy reforms.
The rising demand for general practice services is largely driven by population growth and, to a lesser extent, population ageing.
Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends.
The proportion of the population aged under 25 will decrease while the proportion aged 50 and over will increase. While all age groups use general practice services, utilisation tends to increase with age.
GP consultations are projected to grow from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040, growth of between 23 and 30 per cent.
Requirements for an additional 943 to 1,211 GPs by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 3,928 GPs.
General practice nurse consultations are projected to grow from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040, growth of between 32 and 36 per cent.
Requirements for an additional 761 to 868 general practice nurses by 2040 are projected, relative to a 2023 headcount of 2,288 GPNs.
Growing demand
The Irish College of GPs welcomed the research by the ESRI and said it is aware of the growing demand for GP services.
The chair of the board of the Irish College of GPs, Dr Deirdre Collins, said: “We are acutely aware of the impact of the growing population, and the ageing population, on GP services. T
"his ESRI report is welcome, because it helps give fresh insights into the challenges facing policy makers and the HSE in meeting the growing demand for GP services.”
The chief executive of the Irish College of GPs, Fintan Foy, said: “The ESRI report paints a stark picture of the impact of the growing population on GP demand in the coming years.
"With the support of the HSE and the Department of Health, we remain positive that we can continue to address the challenges of GP shortages. We hope that the resources needed to ensure GPs can set up in areas of new population and where GPs are retiring, can be available when needed.
"We believe the Strategic Review of General Practice needs to be expedited to ensure we can put long term plans in place to meet the growing healthcare needs of the Irish population.”
