Irish election poll tracker: Fianna Fáil takes narrow lead as campaign concludes

Tomas Doherty

Support for Fianna Fáil has moved higher than Fine Gael for the first time in a year, according to the latest poll of polls, as campaigning comes to a close before the general election.

Micheál Martin's party narrowly retains the most public support at just under 22 per cent, ahead of rivals in Fine Gael (21 per cent) and Sinn Féin (20 per cent).

Fine Gael has seen support drop by three percentage points during the election campaign, while support for Sinn Féin has risen slightly.

Support for Independent candidates, including new party Independent Ireland, has increased throughout the election campaign to now stand at 19 per cent.

Below you will find the latest estimated public support for the main political parties based on an average of recent polls.

Fine Gael saw a rise in support in the months following the appointment of Simon Harris as leader.

Mr Harris took over Fine Gael in April after a slump in popularity under Leo Varadkar's leadership.

Fianna Fáil and the Green Party have remained relatively steady at about 21 per cent and 4 per cent support throughout the year.

Sinn Féin has seen support plummet from a high of 36 per cent in the summer of 2022, to about 19 per cent now.

Meanwhile, support for Independent candidates jumped significantly this year in the lead-up to the local and European elections.

Between the end of October 2023 and June 2024, the estimated support for Independent candidates and other parties increased by around nine percentage points to reach 21 per cent.

The breakingnews.ie poll tracker combines voting intention surveys published by major Irish pollsters into one estimate of support for each party. The data is sourced from the Irish Polling Indicator, which is maintained by UCD academic Stefan Müller.

All polls are based on a sample of people interviewed, typically more than 1,000, which is then weighted to be representative of the country.

Listed below are the polls that are currently used to calculate the polling averages.