Basking in a heatwave, but one thought is occupying our minds: Winter is coming...

Now is the winter of our discontent

Made glorious summer by this sun...

William Shakespeare, Richard III

IT has to be one of the most quoted - and misinterpreted - of all Shakespeare’s sonnets.

Barely a year goes by these days without the media referring to a looming winter of discontent - whether it be a planned slew of strikes by public sector unions, or a miserable time ahead for fans of Manchester United.

But the Bard wasn’t looking to the future when he wrote it, he was actually referring to a previous era of discontent in England, and the fact his brother, Edward, had now become king and restored joy and sunshine to the land.

However, the way the opening line of Richard II reads, and the scene it sets, are full of foreboding. In truth, as Shakespeare knew, a winter of discontent was also on its way, when Richard III, a disfigured, malign presence, plotted against his brother and seized the throne for himself.

A similar sense of foreboding for the winter ahead has descended on Ireland and across Europe in recent times. Can you sense it?

Even as we basked in an unlikely August heatwave this week, I can’t have been alone in feeling pangs of anxiety about the coming season.

Discontent indeed...

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The coming winter threatens to be a very difficult time for all, on a number of fronts.

We’ll start with the known knowns.

We’ve already begun to feel the pain of rocketing energy prices, and, barring an unlikely resolution to the war in Ukraine, these will remain at record high levels for the winter ahead.

As soon as the nights draw in and the chill air arrives, millions of us who get our energy from oil, gas, and electricity will have expensive choices to make: When to put on the heat, and for how long? At what temperature? Or shall I just put on an extra layer and save a small fortune?

The bills will be monstrous, and if we have an especially cold winter, the resulting drain on finances will be felt deeply across the land.

Other known knowns: That the price of many other items will continue to rise in tandem with the energy increases, from petrol and diesel in your car, to food and groceries, that cup of coffee, the fast food meal... even (or should that be especially?) candles and logs.

In a bid to check this spiralling inflation, interest rates are almost certain to go up too, forcing up mortgage payments for anyone not on a fixed rate.

These are all almost certain to happen in the winter of 2022/23, and indeed perhaps continue into the spring and summer of next year.

Then we have the known unknowns, which could well turn a winter crisis into a full-blown catastrophe for many households.

These include the fear of power outages in Ireland and across Europe, or the rationing of energy, as pressure grows on supplies.

If that happens, if something so basic and taken-for-granted as the power in our homes, the heating and lighting, are taken away from us or reduced - meaning no TV or broadband, as well as essentials like light and heat - the misery and unrest would be off the scale.

Am I scare-mongering?

No. I do hope I am proved wrong, but the news this week on our preparedness as a nation for a winter energy shortfall does not bode well.

None other than ex-managing director of ESB International, Don Moore, stated that Ireland is bottom of the class in Europe in terms of preparation for a gas crisis this winter.

He told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland that other countries in Europe are “busily filling their gas storage” during the summer to even out the peak demand in the winter.

Ireland could be doing this too, using the Kinsale gas field as a store. Er, bad news, folks.

“Ireland decided not to exercise that option,” Mr Moore stated, adding: “Ireland, the country at the end of the European gas grid, is the least prepared for a gas crisis this winter.”

Words to send a chill down the spine, even in these near-30C dog days of August.

The ongoing energy crisis is sure to fuel discontent in the cold months ahead - and that will put huge pressure on the Government.

I have written here before about how Micheál Martin has been an unlucky Taoiseach, spending a decade waiting in the wings for the top job, then being handed it during a time of unprecedented national crisis in a pandemic.

Well, he may well be feeling a bit luckier in mid-December when he hands the crown to Leo Varadkar just as the shortest days arrive and the colder climes set in.

If households are getting battered by sky-high energy bills and rising costs, and then the lights go out... well, those are the kinds of nightmare scenarios that can bring down not just a Taoiseach, but an entire government.

It won’t just be the big two parties that suffer either. The Greens’ leader Eamon Ryan is in charge of our energy needs, and few will be in the mood to hear lectures on burning peat or harming the climate when another power outage strikes.

If I were a betting man, I would be sorely tempted by the current odds of 3-1 against an election taking place next year.

The one chink of light for Leo, and for us billpayers and householders, is that the government can alleviate a lot of the pain with their budget next month.

Buoyed by a record tax surplus of €5 billion in the seven months to July, they have the war chest that may just see us through the winter crises. But they need to use it wisely and well.

So far, the government have provided householders with just €200 off our spring bills - a figure that was reduced further because - laughably - it was subject to VAT.

Although that was handy at the time, the ever-rising price of energy and the expensive winter months will require an awful lot more to be doled out to alleviate the pain that is coming.

This is a bail-out that will require vast sums of money - but failure to shield consumers from the energy fall-out could easily cause the government to crumble.

The heat was on this week, and we all enjoyed our season in the sun, but the heat will really be on us all, and our politicians, in the cold months ahead.

Forget about Shakespeare, the quote that comes to mind now when I think of the coming season is from an altogether more modern literature genre, Game of Thrones.

Winter is coming...