Premier League: Ten games on, who are the league winners and losers? 

In the world of politics, an administration’s performance over the first 100 days in office is seen as an early bellwether to their chances of success in future elections. In the shortened and arguably more scrutinised lifespan of a Premier League club and its management, the first metric is 10 matchdays.

After passing that ‘milestone’ last weekend and with a couple of impactful matches this weekend, not least the game that could well define the top three with Man City hosting Liverpool tomorrow, let us evaluate some of the performances of the league’s teams and management as we pass by the quarter point of the season.

While it may seem too early to put too much stock into the look of the table after such a short period of time, statistically over the past 20 years, it has been shown that teams are likely only likely to move up or down by just one position in the table from now till the end of the season.

Stat attack

Speaking of statistics, it is also interesting to see whether the team on top of the table after 10 games went on to win the championship come the end of the season. Surprisingly, after what we said that the table position barely move, there has been only four occasions in the past 10 seasons whereby the team leading at the start of November went on to win the title in May.

Man City have done it twice (2017-18, 2018-19) and Liverpool have done it twice (2019-20, 2024-25). Arsenal were last in the position they now inhabit at top of the table after 10, back in 2022-23 but failed to get the better of eventual winners Man City, who edged them into second with a four point gap come May.

Indeed, in 14 of the 33 Premier League seasons to date the team top at this stage have gone on to win the title. So there is a slightly less than a 50-50 chance that Mikel Arteta's side will be still top in six-month’s time. Odds I’m sure most Gunner fans would be willing to take, considering the form they’ve been showing so far this season. Boosting Arsenal’s case that they can go on to win the title this season is the fact that only seven sides, over those same 33 seasons, on 19 points at this stage of the season, which is where the current second-place side Man City are, have gone on to win the title. Nobody has done it on fewer points than 18. 

Arsenal lead City by six points now, which is the exact most points any team has led at this point of the season yet went on to lose the title. Manchester United managed to overturn that lead in 2002-03 against Arsenal and Manchester City in 2013-14 against Liverpool, are the only two to do that.

Against any Arsenal fans’ fears of a reoccurrence of such a calamity is the reassurance of their performances this season. And while the club reinforced its midfield and most notably deficits in their striker lineups. It has been the side’s defence that has really sparked this season, keeping a clean sheet in seven of their opening 10 games, conceding a mere three goals in total, while City have coughed up eight and Liverpool, a staggering and well-advertised, 14 goals.

The Opta (sports statistic group) computer-predicted league table, currently has Arsenal finishing the season on 81 points, with a 70% chance of winning the title for the first time in 22 years.

And the rest

As for the rest of the league, newly promoted Sunderland are the surprise package of the season, with 18 points from their opening 10 games, an undefeated record at home, and a fourth-placed position in the table, no promoted side has been relegated after accruing that many points at this stage of the season, defying the analysis of most pundits at the start of the season.

At the other end of the table, the bad news for Wolves in their position of being last on two points after 10 games has meant relegation every time in Premier League history. Four sides have survived on three points in 33 seasons. Some hope for Forest and West Ham on six and seven points respectively is that many sides have survived from those totals after 10. For Leeds on 11 points in 16th, the good news is that every promoted side in the past 10 seasons with 11 points after 10 games has gone on to survive. Burnley on 10 points are on the borderline with a 20% chance of survival according to Opta.

Nothing certain

As we talked about last week, the resurgence of set-piece plays has been a defining aspect of the season so far with Arsenal, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Sunderland, and Brentford making the most of set-piece, frees, corners, and long throw-ins, seeing these sides make a far more significant impact on the shape of the table so far, in comparison to sides looking to score from open play, most notably Man City and Liverpool. It has made the top half of the table very congested with just three points separating Aston Villa in 11th and Liverpool in third. Which while showing that the Premier League remains one of the most competitive in the world there is still a lot to play for when a single win can propel you from mid-table to title contention.