Premier League: Outcome of investigation may hurt league more than Man City

For those that may not have heard, including some Manchester City fans here, the team crashed out of the Club World Cup in the early hours of Tuesday morning to Saudi league side Al Hilal.

While going out of this cash-rich tournament before the big payout will be seen as a setback, especially to a side most would have expected City to easily beat, the real cost of going to Fifa’s late season American folly may be the sight of second-half substitute Rodri being substituted himself in extra time in what looks like a setback to the recovery of the talismanic Spanish midfield general, whose injury absence last season was given as the main reason for City’s collapse in the pursuit of retaining their title.

But even that setback may pale into insignificance for the Manchester side ahead of the upcoming new season in August, should the outcome of the 115 Financial Fair Play (FFP) charges against the club’s method at sourcing of external financing goes against them. But what may be even worse is the impact the decision or lack of decision may have on the rest of the Premier League.

The charges

For a quick synopsis of the charges, Man City are alleged to have concealed payments and revenues through associated third parties by disguising them as sponsorship revenue between 2009 and 2018. The case on the charges commenced in 2023, leading to an independent commission being set up to investigate the allegations, with the hearings starting in September of last year, ending in December 2024, and the panel are still considering its verdict as of July 2025.

To put the time into context, during the same time period City were being investigated, the Premier League investigated, concluded, and penalised Everton, Nottingham Forest, and Leicester City for their own infringements of FFP laws, admittedly at a far smaller scale than City’s alleged infringements.

City have maintained their innocence throughout and have continued to conduct their business in the extravagant spending style they are accustomed to. Offering big contract extensions to striker Erling Haaland and boss Pep Guardiola, as well as spending £180m in the Christmas transfer window not to mind what business they have conducted and still will do this summer.

The questions now is when will we know the verdict of the FFP commission? And how will the verdict affect City and the league?

Fallout

Most believed we would have had a verdict before the end of last season or at the very least before the start of next season. But concerns are growing that the decision may now roll into the start of the 2025/2026 season. Which will be bad news for City and for the league in general too.

Firstly, at a practical level, while these questions hang over City, can they fully prepare for the next season? Would they be in breach of FFP this season? If City are found guilty, sanction hearings will have to take place during the season to determine punishment, with any negative finding likely to be appealed by City, which will impact other sides competing against them as they will have no idea how the result against City will affect their points and position in the table.

Should City be fully cleared, more questions will be raised over the veracity of the guilty findings on the aforementioned Everton, Forest, and Leicester. How can their breach of FFP be so clear cut if City are completely exonerated. Will they be allowed to appeal their point deductions and fines?  And how does that then impact other clubs around them?

Even if City are cleared it will be perceived as them being cleared only by the letter of the law, escaping the financial doping of their team only by way of a loophole.

In a way, if they are found innocent, then fair play to City (pardon the pun). If they get away with it, it exposes the hypocrisy and failure of the Premier League’s financial rules and enforcement. And if City spotted the loophole and exploited it when other sides missed it, well that’s just part of the game too. No?

Against that, an innocent verdict allows every other club now the opportunity to do the very same method in financing their future squads. What that leads to no one can be sure, but any other experience of total deregulation and lack of controls on club spending in other leagues eventually led to outright corruption and the eventual financial collapse of their entire league.

The outcome of the 115 FFP case may not destroy City, but it just might be the start of the end of the Premier League.