Premier League: Race for Champions League spots set for intense run-in

With the Premier League title race and relegation battle pretty much sorted out now, the attention is understandably drawn to the only question remaining, which sides will make the Champions League qualification places?

With Liverpool two wins from the title, they technically are the only side officially guaranteed Champions League qualification at this stage. And while there is still a chance that Arsenal could miss out on qualifications it would require a set of result to occur beyond the imagination of a Marvel movie scriptwriter.

So we go with the presumption that Liverpool and Arsenal have the top two spots. That leaves three remaining Champions League places (thanks to the Gunners beating Real Madrid) remaining to the chasing pack. And in an unprecedented scramble for the lucrative bounty, there are eight sides still in with a realistic chance of bagging the remaining spots.

Revelation

This season has been a revelation for sides that have traditionally resided outside the traditional top six hegemony, with any side from 12th in the table up, putting in performances and getting results that have upset the usual norms of Champions League qualification.

The collapse this season of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur of course has opened the door to access Europe’s top competition, but there is still no denying the quality of the chasing teams this year. On any given weekend, any side can bring down a side with a more illustrious pedigree. Take West Ham’s recent win over Arsenal or Fulham’s upset of champions-elect Liverpool, despite double digit gaps in the table between the sides.

The competitiveness means that it’s hard to call which sides will bag those remaining prized qualifications.

Part of the renewed competitiveness in the league has seen Nottingham Forest reside in third place in the league for long periods, since the season turned over into 2025. The inspired leadership of Nuno Espirito Santo and the hard work of the Forest squad had the club contending for positions in the table and aspirations for Europe not seen since the 1980s. And most neutral fans would be happy to see their return to Europe. But the pressure of the run in has seen them stumble in results of late, notably losing 1-0 to Everton last weekend at home, and they now have slipped out of third spot after Newcastle humiliated a very good Crystal Palace side on Wednesday night.

So Newcastle United and notably Aston Villa now look best placed to take advantage should Forest’s collapse continue.

Toon on a roll

The Magpies have built on their Carabao Cup final victory with four straight wins including that game in hand against Palace. Villa have been on their own impressive run of late, winning nine of their last 10 games in all competitions. And the hunt for qualification for the two sides will become a lot clearer come this evening when the they meet at Villa Park.

It will be interesting to see how Villa handle going out of this season’s Champions League to PSG on Tuesday. Despite putting in a valiant comeback to win the game they still lost out on the tie in Villa Park on goal difference. If this has demoralised them then Newcastle will take advantage of it. Still it is now Villa’s only goal for the remainder of the season, so they can go all out to return to the Champions League for next season.

A defeat for Villa would probably end those hopes while Newcastle’s hopes could probably survive the setback of defeat.

Race to May

At the moment, Man City are holding on to the last remaining qualification spot but have Chelsea and Villa breathing down their necks just a point behind. With Bournemouth, Brighton, and Fulham on an outside chance of closing the gap a further seven points behind.

City have a testy away tie against a rejuvenated Everton under David Moyes, while Chelsea face a Fulham side that has done well in Craven Cottage for tomorrow’s London derby.

Bournemouth, who have had such an impressive run until recently face Crystal Palace away today at 3pm. A defeat there would almost certainly pop the Cherries last remaining hopes of making the Champions League qualifications.

With six games remaining the odds and form indicate that Man City and Newcastle will bag two of the remaining qualification spots and we will give the nod to Forest to bag the last spot barring a complete meltdown in form. If that happens Villa will be waiting in the wings.