The Longshot: Portugal can give Ronaldo perfect international send-off

IS IT just the 14 years ago that a lone tipster pushed the saloon doors open and entered all our hearts?

It was a few weeks after the 2010 World Cup when the sports editor took me aside, and for once it was not berate me for turning up extremely late or wearing inappropriate attire for an office setting.

He said he wanted someone to offer betting advice to the unwitting Cork public and considering an octopus had managed to predict the winners of games in every round, including the winner, of the recent tournament in South Africa, he felt he could spare me from more important duties to take up the challenge.

It went well enough and except for four-year hiatus (2018-2022, often referred to as my lost years, when I went searching for, and failed to find myself) I am still in the role, despite algorithms biting at my ankles to take over.

Two years into my original reign, Euro 2012 occurred and although I didn’t manage to travel to Eastern Europe to help clean up litter with the best-behaved fans this side of the Dnieper, I did call Spain as the overall winners, like the tentacled seer had at the World Cup two years before.

In advance of the 2012 tournament many zookeepers and animal husbandrists jumped on the soothsaying bandwagon and sought for assorted creatures to replace the wily invertebrate, whose ink had run dry by then. Fred, a ferret from Kharkiv, predicted results by choosing a bowl of beef to eat from. Kyiv boasted a hog called Khryak, and Poland had an elephant named Citta, who plucked melons from a fence.

It was all becoming a bit industrialised and eating into the integrity of honest-to-goodness homo sapien tipsters’ crust, and eventually led to my hard-hitting expose into a wildlife park, that saved the lives of at least eight prairie dogs wearing the scarves in the colours of competing countries, who were being trained to compete in an unfair race with some very hungry cheetahs.

Euro 2012 was also the competition where on BBC Alan Hansen chose Germany and Portugal and Holland to reach the semis (the first two did) when they were all in the same group and only two could qualify to the knockout stages. All that has changed now of course, with three possible qualifiers from groups as there have been 24 teams in the past three runnings. This takes a lot of the trepidation out of the groups, a bit like the current All-Ireland football series. In 2016, Portugal won outright despite drawing all three of their group games.

We mention Hansen, as it is reported the Liverpool great is seriously ill in hospital at the moment and we all wish him a speedy recovery. He was a great defender and pundit and no one could pronounce the word “diabolical” quite like him.

Are we going to get to outright odds anytime soon? Certainly.

England are the 3/1 favourites and while you have to admire Gareth Southgate’s decision to jettison half of the squad he took to Qatar, taking them to end their long tournament famine at that price is crazy.

France only started playing in the last nine minutes of the World Cup final but still should have won it in the remaining time and they would seem a better choice at 4/1.

Germany have progressed to at least the semis in their previous three major tournaments as hosts and seem to have overcome the low ebb following being dumped out of the World Cup at the group stage (they shipped 22 goals in 11 games last year).

Six of the last seven defending champs have failed to get past the first knockout phase (three went out at the group stages), while 10 of the past 11 holders have been eliminated before the final four years late. It is unlikely Italy at 18/1 will change that trend as Luciano Spalletti attempts to shift their style of play.

Holland were crowned champs the last time Germany hosted in 1988 but they have alarmingly failed to win a knockout game in this competition since reaching the semis in 2004 and looking at their games against us in qualifying, do not look to have huge strength in depth.

Half of the countries participating are located east of what was the old Iron Curtain and all bar Croatia (who have never won a knockout match in this competition) are in the back half of the outright odds. Only Scotland (who have never progressed past the group-stage in their previous 11 appearances at tournaments) from this side of the continent loiter in the bottom 12 of the market.

Portugal are unlikely to draw all their games this time in a group alongside Czech Republic, Turkey and play-off penalty winners Georgia and they look to offer stronger challenge than their Iberian neighbours. Both are 7/1.

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OUR tip last week suggested the Memorial tournament was one set up for Scottie Scheffler and the world number one didn’t let us down, despite a triple-bogey wobble on the back nine on Saturday and an unspectacular final round He enters the US Open at Pinehurst (another an approach-shot golf course where finding the small targets on sloping greens is important — large convex putting surfaces will reward accuracy with irons — an area where the Texan is peerless) as 4/1 favourite and has a game and age profile that suggests he could become one of the true greats, and be acknowledged in the pantheon alongside the likes of Gary Player, Tom Watson, and Ben Hogan, although it is hard to imagine him challenging the top duo of Tiger and Jack.

The track will suit Scheffler and a good course fit worked well for Matt Fitzpatrick (50/1 here), returning to the scene of his US amateur success at Brookline two years ago.

Rory McIlroy (4) and Brooks Koepka (5) have more majors than the genial Texan (it’s illegal to refer to him any other way, even after he was charged for a felony at the recent PGA), but his talent and temperament suggest a better shot at generational greatness.

Koepka was outside the top 25 at the first two majors this year, and is now on a run of four majors without a top 10 finish since his 2023 PGA win.

We will, without much optimism, look for better value than Scheffler, reminding ourselves he has yet to win a big one outside of Augusta He is followed in the market by Rory at 11/1, who is unlikely to succeed at a course that will not suit him. PGA winner Xander Schauffele, at 14/1, should pick up another major at some stage, but probably not here.

We’re a bit weary and wary of giving Viktor Hovland the benefit of the doubt not to make mistakes when it really matters and, considering that, 18/1 does not look like great value.

Bryson DeChambeau is definitely interesting at 20/1. He was unlucky not to make the playoff at Valhalla and was up there at Augusta, too. Going back to last year, he has six straight top-10s in tournaments in the US (much of his participation is worldwide on LIV).

Winners are guaranteed a spot in the next ten US Opens and a five-year exemption at the other majors, something Shane Lowry would cherish, but he lost his cool when in the mix at Valhalla and is hard to follow again here, even at 66/1.

This will be Tiger’s (150/1) first US Open start since 2020, when he shot 10-over-par and missed the cut. Since then, he’s made six starts at majors, making two cuts, missing two and withdrawing twice and he will not feature here in any shape, despite a pair of top-three finishes at Pinehurst when it hosted Opens in 1999 and 2005 (when first was the only position he was interested in).

One older lemon who may do well is 43-year-old (is that even old asks another 43-year-old?) Justin Rose (100/1), whose sole major success came at the US Open in 2013, and who secured his best finish of the 2024 season at the PGA Championship last month.

It was the following year, a decade ago, that this tournament was last held at Pinehurst, which saw a very unusual eight-shot win. Martin Kaymer secured his second major with a wire-to-wire victory that saw only Rickie Fowler and the lesser-spotted Erik Compton also shoot under par. Kaymer ditched his wedge and mostly long-putted off the green for the four days, which could be a lesson for others who struggle with their short game, like Hovland.

Since then, Wyndham Clark last summer in LA is the only player outside the World top 30 to win this event. Min Woo Lee (66/1) is ranked 35th, but he looks like he might favour the track. Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood (both 50/1) will also like the look of the layout.

But coming off a runner-up at the PGA, which followed a sixth place at the Masters, I’m going to plump for Bryson Dechambeau at 20/1.

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IRELAND’S opponents tonight in a friendly in Aveiro (we are 10/1 to win) took maximum points from 10 qualifying games for the Euros with an extraordinary +34 goal difference.

Roberto Martinez may have to use all his man-management skills to keep a certain goalscoring machine who is worshipped by his team-mates happy, and though it seems unlikely to happen, the top scorer in Euros’ history might be best used as an impact sub in Germany. Tonight is presumably Cristiano Ronaldo’s final home international game (205th cap) and he is 8/13 to score, 5/2 to score first and 11/1 to bag a farewell hat-trick.

Paris Saint-Germain’s Goncalo Ramos could bag a lot of goals in a handy group over the next few weeks (8 in 11 caps already) and with the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and Diogo Jota to assist, he is a decent shout at 50/1 for the Golden Boot (CR7 is 12/1).

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IT’S the rare occasion when I find myself not wanting a bet to click.

But that’s where I found myself watching the men’s French Open final. Not simply because I am a big Alcaraz fan, but following my tip for Sasha Zverev (a 14/1 double with the imperious Iga Swiatek) news came last Friday that he had reached a €200k settlement out of court with his ex-girlfriend over domestic abuse. Another former partner Olga Sharypova also accused him of assaulting her in 2020. He denied both allegations and did not plead guilty last week, but it was a few quid we were glad to lose, as the Spaniard came from 2-1 down in sets to win.

The Bet

MIGHT as well keep things simple and do two separate bets of Bryson Dechambeau to win the US Open and get on Portugal at 7/1 to win the Euros. A Germany-Portugal decider is 33/1.