The Longshot: Robots advance toenails and very little else

WHEN I started up in this betting space again almost a year ago, one of the first things I planned to do was try to get an AI programme to write a betting preview for me.

In the interests of curiosity, not laziness. Well 60% curiosity and 40% lethargy (the internet was already providing me with 100% of my synonyms, like lethargy for laziness).

I signed up for one such platform called Jasper, but then it asked me for debit card details before I could start a free trial, so I closed the browser window and forgot all about the idea.

Safe to say that 11 months later, getting an AI programme to write an article for you is a far less original idea. Back at the beginning of the summer, The Irish Times had to apologise for being the victim of a hoax after running an article about Irish women’s use of fake tan (and the contrast to those who already have darker skin), which was submitted by an author who admitted to using AI to create the thinkpiece. Red faces all round!

Then last month we had a group of regional newspapers purposefully running a controversial article about immigrants, generated by AI. Before changing the subject when there was a backlash.

So the idea to get algorithms to pen pieces for papers is topical, and will probably become somewhat more common, but it has been done. The ship has sailed.

Except then I realised I’m going on holidays next week so I decided what harm was there in seeing if the robots could take over for the fortnight I am away?

I decided to do a trial run today and found the two foremost (and free) AI platforms and fed in the following: “Write a humorous preview of the 2023 Premier League, please”.

ChatGPT, probably the most famous such ‘text-generating’ helper got back to me almost immediately.

‘Ladies and gentlemen, football fanatics and casual observers, brace yourselves for the return of the Premier League - the grandest circus in all of sports! Get ready for an uproarious ride filled with spectacular goals, bewildering twists, and moments that will have you scratching your head wondering “Did that just happen?”’

So far, so mediocre. There was an attempt at something vaguely resembling mirthful when the machines turned on each other and eyed up VAR: ‘The technology that was meant to end all controversies and bring about footballing utopia. Instead, it’s become a game of “Spot the Offside Toenail” and “Guess the Exact Millisecond of Contact.” Will VAR finally master the art of making sense? We’re not holding our breath.’

Not that computers can hold their breath, but what about some predictions, the very least I’d requested?

‘Of course, no Premier League preview is complete without wildly inaccurate predictions! Will the newly-promoted team shock the world and win the league? Will the perennial title contenders suddenly forget how to kick a ball? Your guess is as good as ours, and probably just as likely to be hilariously wrong.’

Thanks a bunch AI.

‘So, dear readers, as the Premier League circus prepares to open its curtains for the 2023 season, remember to keep your popcorn ready and your sense of humour intact. From last-minute own goals to referees doing the moonwalk, this is football in all its glorious, unpredictable, and side-splitting splendour. Get ready to witness the beautiful game in all its hilarious and heartwarming absurdity!”

I next asked Google’s Bard, the newest AI kid on the block.

‘The 2023 Premier League season is shaping up to be a wild one, with a number of teams vying for the title. Here are some of the top contenders, along with their humorous odds.

‘Pep Guardiola’s side are always the favourites, but they will have to deal with the loss of Erling Haaland. They will win the title, but only after Pep Guardiola gets into a fistfight with a referee.’

Bard’s idea of humour seems a bit darker than ChatGPT at first.

‘Liverpool will finish second, but only after Mohamed Salah is injured in a training ground accident involving a banana peel.”

They love their slapstick do the robot brains. Stoo-pid humans!

‘Chelsea will finish third, but only after Thomas Tuchel is caught on camera eating a raw onion.’

Why the Bayern Munich coach will be doing this and what it has to do with the club he left last season is a bit bewildering.

‘Manchester United will finish fourth, but only after Cristiano Ronaldo is caught on camera trying to steal the ball from a child.’

AI seems to be a season behind, I realise.

‘Arsenal will finish fifth, but only after Mikel Arteta is caught on camera wearing a Tottenham Hotspur scarf.’

‘Tottenham Hotspur will finish sixth, but only after Antonio Conte is caught on camera yelling at a pigeon.’

Bard is definitely a season behind, confirmed when it tips Leicester to be dark horses.

Asking it to come up with jokes this early in its development might have been a bit of an ask for the algorithm, although it did manage to be twice as funny as I usually am.

I considered getting a bit more specific to see if it improved its ability to give predictions I could actually use.

Figuring it Wout with help from our robot friends

 ChatGPT immediately fesses up to its shortcomings when I ask it to provide a preview for tonight’s clash between for Vincent Kompany’s Burnley and champs Man City.

‘As an AI language model, I don’t have access to real-time data or events beyond my last update in September 2021. I can’t provide you with a specific preview and analysis for a Burnley vs. Manchester City game that might have occurred after that date.

I next try Bard, but it gets off to a bad start.

‘Burnley and Manchester City will face each other on February 12, 2023, at Turf Moor in Burnley, England.'

And continues that way: ‘The match is a Premier League fixture, and it is sure to be an exciting one. Burnley are currently in 18th place in the Premier League, and they are in a relegation battle. They have won just two games this season, and they have lost 15.’ 

‘With star players like Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling, Man City is the clear favourite to secure victory, with odds set at 1/6.’ 

Sterling isn’t the only player who won’t be involved in the fixture that they believe could put their stamp on the game. Riyad Mahrez, now of Al-Ahli, is a ‘quick winger who can cause problems for the Burnley defence’.

Burnley are also assigned players who have recently departed, like Maxwel Cornet, who does admittedly play in similar colours at West Ham. 

James Tarkowski is labelled a key part of the Burnley defence, 'who will be looking to keep City’s attacking players quiet’, despite now being at Everton.

However, I will hand it to Bard for apprising me on a salient bit of pre-match info, stating Wout Weghorst will be looking to cause problems for the Man City defence. He’s with Man United now, I think, tut-tutting, not realising he was only on loan at Old Trafford last season and will now be leading the line again (or attempting to) for former famed Citizen Vincent Kompany’s men. 

More likely, Bard never realised he briefly left and had a stinking stint with United.

‘I predict a 3-1 win for City. I hope this helps!’ concludes my robot friend. It’s all about results, not performance, so let’s see.

- IF Man City manage to add a seventh top-flight title this season, they will make history by becoming the first team to win the top division four times on the trot. Huddersfield, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man United and City are the only sides to have won the league title in three consecutive seasons and Pep Guardiola’s side are 5/6 to come to the four.

Although they trailed Arsenal by eight points at one stage last season, their usual strong finish ensured their third title was wrapped up before a dramatic showdown could even be considered.

They have sold Gundogan and Mahrez, and it would probably worry other teams to lose such quality. But they have plenty of other men to step in to replace even players as talented as them. Croatia defender Josko Gvardiol is a huge addition to an already steady defence. And they still have the most fearsome centre-forward in football (who scored 52 goals all in last season).

- ARSENAL lost their bottle was the generally accepted consensus last season.

That probably wasn’t that fair as they more likely overachieved and had they had anything close to Man City’s strength in depth off the bench they could have prevailed or at least taken the title race down to the wire.

The Gunners have signed Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber’s arrival from Ajax will give cover for William Saliba, whose injury last term was the beginning of Arsenal’s hopes crumbling.

Mikel Arteta’s men are 5/1 to go one better this term, and 9/4 in the ‘Without Man City’ market. Liverpool look like being the only other side who can challenge and are 8/1.

- BURNLEY, who are 10/1 to beat champs Man City in the opening fixture this evening, are 9/2 to go straight back down after they smashed a century of Championship points en route to that title last season. There are bigger concerns around fellow risers John Egan’s Sheffield United (4/6 to go down) and Chiedozie Ogbene’s Luton (4/11).

Everton survived by the skin of their teeth last time out and could be joined in the battle for the drop with Wolves (who parted ways before with Julen Lopetegui before he could become most likely to leave first in the sack race after nine months in the job), Notts Forest, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Fulham, and West Ham. But all the bullseyes are on my beloved Luton it seems, who are 9/4 to score the least goals and 4/5 to take in 31 points or less.

The Bet

AS our experiment in AI floundered before it even got a chance to hit the rocks, we will revert to the tried and trusted method of getting the always-insightful Denis Hurley to take over for a couple of weeks. And tip Arsenal to win the league at 5/1.