ESRI report: Cork and Kerry will need more than 900 new hospital beds by 2040

Cork and Kerry will likely need up to 925 additional hospital beds by 2040, with population growth and ageing anticipated to lead to nearly 200,000 more hospital presentations per annum.

An ESRI report has projected significant increases in demand for public acute hospital services and associated bed capacity requirements by 2040 across the six HSE health regions.

The South-West region, comprised of Cork and Kerry, will require as many as 47% more beds across the Cork University Hospital, Cork University Maternity Hospital, Mercy University Hospital, Mallow General Hospital, Bantry General Hospital, South Infirmary Victoria University Hospital, and University Hospital Kerry. The report looked at the anticipated population growth for the region and likely changes to the population age structure.

Living longer

More people progressively living longer can mean more people requiring healthcare as they age, while also factoring in potential healthier ageing and fertility rate reductions.

The report predicts a 19.9%-26.4% growth in hospital attendances between 2023 and 2040, with a rise of between 1.1% to 1.4% year-on-year.

In 2023, there were 187,000 emergency department (ED) attendances and 546,000 outpatient department (OPD) day attendances. This is expected to rise to between 225,000 and 237,000 emergency department attendances, and between 655,000 and 694,000 outpatient department attendances by 2040.

Cumulative total

 In 2023, there were 546,000 hospital bed days — the cumulative total of days a patient required a hospital bed for — in total across Cork and Kerry. The ESRI anticipates there will be demand for 640,000 to 764,000 bed days by 2040.

To meet this, an additional 560 to 925 beds will be needed — comprised of 55 to 123 additional day patient beds and 505 to 811 inpatient beds. There are currently 1,934 hospital beds across hospitals in the South-West, but this will need to be increased to between 2,494 and 2,859 by 2040; a rise of 29% and an annual increase of 1.5% to 2.3%.

In May 2024, then minister for health Stephen Donnelly announced an additional 580 beds for the South-West healthcare region, with 472 new acute hospital beds to be delivered in Cork and 108 in Kerry by 2031.