Coveted fifth seat in Cork South Central goes to Social Democrats

Boxes opened at 9am on Saturday morning in Nemo Rangers to tally votes for Cork South Central as 22 candidates fought for five seats.

This included just two incumbents, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Sinn Féin’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, as the constituency gained a seat and former Ministers Simon Coveney and Micheal McGrath didn’t contest.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin was elected on the first count with more than 4,000 votes over the quota, and then began a long series of counts without any more elections, though the four candidates likely to take the remaining seats seemed clear from the first count and even the early tallies.

Mr Martin’s running mate Seamus McGrath, brother of new European Commissioner Michael, looked well placed to take the second seat, with Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire of Sinn Féin likely to come in third.

Fine Gael’s vote being split across three non-incumbent candidates left their top candidate, Jerry Buttimer, who held a seat in the constituency until 2016 when it was changed to a four seater, in fifth place for the majority of the counts.

However, it was almost certain he would be elected given his two running mates both had strong votes, particularly Shane O’Callaghan who was the second last candidate eliminated.

It was clear from the early tallies on the Saturday morning that Social Democrats Pádraig Rice had far exceeded expectations and was likely to take a seat – his husband and campaign manager Aaron O’Sullivan told The Echo on Saturday: “It’s looking quite positive, though it’s still early days and there’s a lot of transfers to come into play.

“We don’t want to count our chickens before they’re hatched, but we’re certainly in a positive position and we’re happy enough with where we are.

“There’s some strong boxes and then still reasonable showings in areas where we wouldn’t be as strong or have done as much work given the timeline, so we’re optimistic.”

Mr Rice’s success was not predicted by political analysts or bookmakers, but Social Democrats co-founder Róisín Shortall told reporters earlier this month that they were “quietly confident” that Mr Rice, who has been involved with the party since its inception, would prove successful.

They were right to be optimistic and confident – as Mr Rice was in fourth place almost throughout the tallies, and it became not a question of if he would take the coveted fifth seat, but when.

Mr Rice himself seemed overwhelmed with the support on the Saturday, telling The Echo: “It looks like thousands of people across the city went out and put a number one next to my name on a wet Friday – I’m really honoured and delighted.”

That seat had been predicted by bookmakers to belong to either Independent Mick Finn or Labour’s Laura Harmon, who was eliminated on the fifteenth count, with her 4,643 votes transferring largely to Mr Rice and pushing Mr Ó Laoghaire over the edge.

Mr Finn did not give up quite as quickly, but ended up placing sixth in the five seater.

He told The Echo prior to this: “I’d be a bit disappointed with the first preference votes based on what I’d been hearing on the doorsteps.

“I want to give credit to the other candidates, and in particular well done to Pádraig Rice getting a huge vote in his first ever general election – it has been at my expense sadly.”

Tony Field, whose election promises included bringing back the death penalty, got 35 votes, Independent John O’Leary, who has run in four of the five Cork constituencies, got 58, while Independent Ireland’s Valerie Ward got 104 – all three were eliminated on the first count after Mr Martin’s election.

Over the course of Saturday night and Sunday morning, Independent Graham De Barra (230 votes) was eliminated on the second count, followed by Independent Ireland’s Veronica Houlihan (392), Rabharta’s Lorna Bogue (460), Independent Paudie Dineen (633), the National Party’s Ted Neville (978) and People Before Profit-Solidarity’s Shane Laird (1,052).

Mr Laird told The Echo that he was pleased to have gotten more votes than The National Party’s Ted Neville and to have come so close to Fianna Fáil’s Margaret Kenneally. “I’m proud to have gotten over 1,000 before being eliminated,” he said.

Ms Kenneally’s elimination elected Mr McGrath on the tenth count, securing Fianna Fáil’s double in the constituency and the retention of its two seats, then the counts resumed.

Next to be eliminated was Fine Gael’s Úna McCarthy, whose transfers slightly favoured Shane O’Callaghan over Jerry Buttimer, but not enough for him to overtake his party colleague.

Monica Oikeh of the Green Party and Anna Daly of Aontú were eliminated next, followed by Michelle Cowhey Shahid of Sinn Féin, then Labour’s Laura Harmon, at which point Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire was elected to the third seat on the sixteenth count.

He got 2,299 transfers from his running mate Michelle Cowhey Shahid, closely followed by nearly 500 from Ms Harmon on the following count.

This was a longer wait than he faced in 2020 when he topped the poll and was hoisted onto shoulders before tea time on the first day of counting, but he appeared in high spirits waiting for the counts with his wife and three children.

He told The Echo: “I’m delighted with the transfer from my colleague Michelle Cowhey Shahid, she ran a fantastic campaign and the transfer was very strong, so I’m delighted with that, and delighted to be joining what looks like an increased team of Sinn Féin TDs, with some really strong new additions.

“Counts are counts - last time we didn’t have a running mate, and while we didn’t get the running mate over the line this time, it was an important step forward for the organisation locally to take, that needs to be our ambition, to grow the party.

“It takes as long as is takes, we were confident from the tallies that the third seat was there.”

He surpassed the quota by 196 votes, and this surplus was then transferred, as there was a 195 vote gap between Mr O’Callaghan and Mr Finn, so it was theoretically possible the transfer could change the order of eliminations, though extremely unlikely.

The transfers were insufficient, and Mr O’Callaghan was eliminated with 5,958, while Mr Finn held on with 6,177.

The final results came in at 9.30pm, and Jerry Buttimer and Pádraig Rice took the fourth and fifth seats.

Mr Buttimer ended up with 10,917 after 3,667 transfers from Mr O’Callaghan, while Mr Finn got 474 transfers and was eliminated on 6,651, leaving Mr Rice to be elected on 10,242 without having reached the quota.

Mr Buttimer told T he Echo: “I want to thank the people who supported me, it’s a great element of trust which I am humbled by, and those who volunteered to knock on doors on wet and cold nights.

“Our democracy is precious, and anyone who has any doubts about democracy should be here in Nemo Rangers seeing how it all works.”